This isn’t the Blue Jays’ yr. Although they performed at roughly a 90-win tempo over the 2020-23 seasons, issues have fallen aside right here in 2024. They’re 44-52, placing them 9.5 video games out of a playoff spot and with a number of groups blocking their path. Except they crack off an 11-game profitable streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be seeking to do some promoting within the coming weeks.
Crazier issues have occurred however the odds are in opposition to them. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them only a 2% likelihood of a miracle postseason berth whereas the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are solely barely extra optimistic at 3.9%.
Current reporting has urged the Jays are prepared to deal rental gamers however might cease there. Some have floated gamers like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as potential commerce candidates, with every controllable by means of the 2025 season, however normal supervisor Ross Atkins appeared to shoot down that chance. Final month, he stated that buying and selling these guys “simply doesn’t make any sense for us.”
Normally, it appears the membership is hoping to contend once more in 2025. That leaves them with six rental gamers they might commerce between now and the July 30 deadline, as every of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at season’s finish. Naturally, every participant can have totally different commerce worth primarily based on his ability degree but in addition his contract.
One query that the entrance workplace might want to reply is whether or not they’ll prioritize shedding salaries and getting beneath the aggressive steadiness tax or focus extra on prospect returns, consuming some cash so as to tip the scales that manner. The Mets demonstrated the latter path final yr, as they swallowed vital parts of the cash owed to each Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so as to convey again bigger prospect hauls.
Each Roster Useful resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts are fairly shut in estimating Toronto’s present CBT quantity. RR has them simply over $247MM with Cot’s a tad increased at $250MM. These are simply estimates however they’re probably fairly shut, so the Jays must subtract $10-15MM so as to limbo beneath the bottom tax threshold of $237MM.
They gained’t be capable to shed any participant’s full wage from their CBT quantity because the season is already greater than half over, however they might shed parts. For instance, if a participant has a CBT hit of $20MM and is traded on the halfway level of the season, $10MM of that will keep on the buying and selling membership’s books and the opposite half would switch to the buying membership. That’s assuming no money issues had been concerned within the deal.
It’s additionally value declaring {that a} participant’s CBT hit relies on the common annual worth of his contract, not the wage. The baseball season is 187 days lengthy and there are 73 left to go, roughly 39%. By the deadline, that can be right down to 61 days or 32.6%. Let’s take a tough define of the place these six rental gamers stand:
- Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the yr, $5.07MM remaining right now, $4.24MM at deadline
- Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
- Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
- Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
- Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
- Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K
As of right now, these six gamers mix for a CBT hit of roughly $19.06MM, with that quantity set to drop to $15.93MM by the deadline. Although it could be tight, it’s actually potential they might duck beneath the tax this yr.
Doing so would include sure advantages, although the tax financial savings could be minimal. The Jays paid the tax for the primary time final yr and are at the moment on tempo to be a second-time payor. That solely comes with a 30% tax charge, that means they’re at the moment slated to pay within the vary of $3-4MM in taxes.
That’s a drop within the bucket for a serious league workforce however there could be different arguments for ducking beneath. If the Jays did pay the tax this yr and once more in 2025, they’d be a third-time payor subsequent yr, which might bump their tax charge to 50%. Whereas ducking beneath the road this yr would reset their standing and permit them to enter 2025 as a “first-time” payor and have a base charge of simply 20%. That feels vital however nonetheless results in pretty modest tax financial savings. For instance, going $30MM over subsequent yr’s base threshold would result in both a $6MM or $15MM tax invoice, relying on whether or not they’re paying a 20% or 50% charge.
Maybe extra importantly, in the event that they signed a participant within the offseason that had rejected a qualifying supply, they’d face a lesser penalty by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying membership surrenders $1MM in worldwide bonus pool area in addition to its second- and fifth-highest picks within the subsequent draft when signing a QO participant. Avoiding the tax modifications that to only $500K in bonus cash and simply the second-highest choose.
They’d additionally improve what they obtain if a participant rejects a QO and indicators elsewhere. Tax payors obtain a choose after the fourth spherical if a QO participant indicators elsewhere, whereas it’s the beginning of the third in the event that they keep away from the tax. The Jays have a few potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi however the QO consideration could be moot in the event that they get traded.
However as talked about, the Jays may simply neglect in regards to the tax and deal with getting the perfect prospects they’ll. The Cubs are reportedly focused on Jansen however they’d in all probability relatively quit a greater return whereas having the Jays preserve their cash on their books. The Cubs seemingly need to keep away from the tax themselves and Roster Useful resource at the moment has them slightly below $234MM. They’ve a well-regarded farm system and would possibly lean in the direction of subtracting from that, versus taking over cash on the deadline. It might be related with different groups, such because the Padres. Roster Useful resource has them at $225MM and so they appear to need to keep beneath the tax as effectively. They want pitching and could also be focused on somebody like Kikuchi, however they might not need to tackle his cash/CBT hit.
Different groups can be within the reverse place. A workforce such because the Tigers, for instance, could be searching for extra offense. In the event that they had been to inquire about Turner, they’d in all probability desire to tackle the cash and never quit prospect expertise. They’re nowhere close to the tax line and their actual payroll is effectively under their previous spending ranges. Since they’re seven video games out of the playoffs, they could be prepared to tackle a bit of money so as to bolster their membership for a long-shot postseason push, versus surrendering younger gamers and hurting themselves in future seasons.
What the Jays are capable of do will in the end rely upon what sort of gives are coming their manner, as they don’t function in a vacuum. They already know that no membership is prepared to tackle all of Kiermaier’s contract, as they made him freely out there on waivers lately and didn’t get any takers. Maybe somebody could be focused on him as a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder if the Jays ate a few of his deal, however getting the entire the rest of his contract off the books doesn’t seem like an choice.
Relying on the circumstances of their buying and selling companions, they might need to strike a steadiness, with some offers targeted on price financial savings and others on maximizing the return when it comes to expertise. If that leaves them nonetheless a hair over the tax line, they might take into account shifting non-rental gamers, with Chad Inexperienced arguably the best choice there. He’s beneath contract by means of 2025 however has a $10.5MM CBT hit, similar as Kiermaier, giving the Jays an opportunity to wash one other few million from their CBT quantity. Doing so would damage their 2025 bullpen however they may really feel they might simply exchange Inexperienced’s manufacturing by way of an offseason signing. With bullpen assist typically in demand on the deadline, Inexperienced ought to garner curiosity.
Guys like George Springer, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or extra. The Jays may attempt to discover takers for these however Springer is 34 years previous and having a tough season, which might tamp down curiosity. Dealing both Bassitt or Gausman would damage subsequent yr’s rotation, which is probably the membership’s finest argument for making an attempt to compete once more in 2025, as they might go into the offseason with a entrance 4 of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez on paper.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa may very well be an alternative choice as he’s beneath contract by means of 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT hit. He’s having the perfect season of his profession however has been on the injured checklist because the begin of this month with a left knee sprain. He can nonetheless be traded whereas on the IL however his well being standing will impression his commerce worth.
In the end, there are lots of shifting elements right here, a part of the explanation why the Jays can be an attention-grabbing membership to look at within the weeks to return. Many of the sellers at this yr’s deadline can be targeted on the long run, as golf equipment just like the White Sox and Marlins are in actually tough form within the current. That can make their deadline priorities relatively simple, as they are going to be merely seeking to purchase as a lot future expertise as potential.
However the Blue Jays will probably be balancing a number of totally different issues. They are going to be trying to surrender some expertise, however not in a manner that considerably harms their possibilities of competing once more subsequent yr. They may deal with buying as a lot expertise as they’ll proper now or they might limbo beneath the tax line, giving them extra freedom to amass expertise within the offseason. A technique or one other, Atkins and his crew can be seeking to flip a misplaced season into one thing that may assist them down the road, although there are lots of other ways they might attempt to accomplish that.