This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs didn’t anticipate shopping for on the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer basically confirmed as a lot in a chat with reporters simply earlier than tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.
Hoyer mentioned the entrance workplace will method the deadline with an eye fixed towards to the long run. “The place we’re proper now, I must say that strikes just for 2024 – until issues change over the subsequent week – we in all probability gained’t do quite a lot of strikes that solely assist us for this 12 months,” Chicago’s baseball ops chief mentioned (hyperlink by way of Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If strikes assist us for 2025 and past I believe we’re exceptionally nicely positioned.”
Whereas Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the state of affairs may change this week, there’s not a lot ambiguity in how he expects to deal with the deadline. He spoke frankly concerning the group’s “poor place” as regards to this season. “We merely dug a gap with underperformance for 2 months. That doesn’t have an effect on how I view the group or how I view issues going ahead but it surely definitely impacts 2024,” Hoyer mentioned.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free brokers. Hoyer didn’t time period Chicago’s method as shopping for or promoting. That leaves open the potential of making an attempt to amass MLB expertise that’s below group management past this season. Whereas that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of groups buying controllable gamers on the deadline regardless of being out of competition), it’s not frequent. The Cubs would want to outbid groups which can be motivated to land these gamers for each a possible playoff push this summer time and future seasons.
Chicago’s farm system is thought to be one of many strongest within the league. That offers Hoyer and his workers the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable participant of notice, however the likelier end result is that the Cubs will simply transfer a couple of short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a whole teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an choice so (there’s) no level in going by way of the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core items who’re below contract or group management past this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a group’s leases on the desk, however the Cubs don’t have a lot to supply in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal comprises a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual choice) and up to date minor league signee Jorge López are the one true leases. Hendricks is enjoying on a $16.5MM wage and has an earned run common pushing 7.00. Whereas he has pitched higher these days after a dismal begin to the season, there’d be minimal curiosity. The Cubs may attempt to pay down virtually all the contract to discover a commerce companion. Hendricks additionally has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (a minimum of the final 5 of which have been along with his present group) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA throughout 37 innings in an extended aid capability. That stable run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and stroll charges (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM wage and the aforementioned choice buyout, there’s prone to be restricted curiosity within the veteran left-hander.
Cody Bellinger has the flexibility to choose out of the ultimate two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a wonderful however unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 throughout 344 plate appearances. That’d be a tough contract to maneuver even when Bellinger had been wholesome, and he went on the injured record a pair weeks in the past with a damaged finger.
If the Cubs needed to kind of run issues again in 2025, they’d be in for a really quiet deadline. But even when they’re not prone to transfer long-term core items, Chicago may entertain affords on position gamers who’re controllable past this season. USA At the moment’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Crimson Sox had been taking a look at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM yearly between 2025-26. Rogers stories that the Cubs have additionally gotten curiosity in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25, is below group management by way of 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Tremendous Two cutoff for early arbitration subsequent offseason. The Cubs are definitely below no monetary stress to maneuver him, but it surely’s doable they’re ready to maneuver on if one other group views Morel as a daily. Morel is an effective athlete with huge energy upside who has by no means discovered a defensive residence. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and all through the outfield in earlier seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this 12 months, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm power would work on the place. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Common have every given him very poor grades for his stint on the scorching nook.
This additionally hasn’t been an incredible season for Morel on the plate. Whereas he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 profession slash line that Morel carried into the season. Whereas that’s clearly not best, it belies some intriguing developments from a course of perspective. Morel has upped his stroll price by a pair factors whereas dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s placing out 23.8% of the time this 12 months. An unsustainably low .221 common on balls in play has saved that from materializing into higher outcomes.
Even when the Cubs count on Morel’s offensive efficiency to normalize with an uptick in his common on balls in play, the shortage of a defensive match makes him a tough participant to worth. The Cubs may hope to show third base over to final 12 months’s first-round decide Matt Shaw as quickly as subsequent season. They don’t have a lot in the way in which of short-term alternate options. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d in all probability depend on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Knowledge to cowl the place for the remainder of the season.
The Cubs must be open to affords on anybody of their bullpen. Neris has dealt with the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm pressure. The offseason signee has been shaky, strolling 16.1% of opponents and blowing 4 saves in 17 makes an attempt. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros final season, however that’s up two runs this 12 months because of his management woes. The 35-year-old righty is enjoying on a $9MM wage and has an identical choice for subsequent 12 months. That’s presently a group choice however would convert to a participant choice if Neris pitches in 24 extra video games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t prone to need Neris again at that worth level. They’d presumably be completely happy to discover a commerce companion, however the potential for being saddled with a $9MM participant choice if Neris hits his vesting marker may make different groups cautious. There’s much less danger as regards to Leiter and Miller. The previous is placing out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder price throughout 34 innings. He’s enjoying on a $1.5MM wage and is below arbitration management by way of 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in Might, has damaged out with a 2.04 ERA whereas placing out practically 26% of opponents throughout 35 1/3 frames.
Whether or not the Cubs get compelling sufficient affords to maneuver anybody from that group stays to be seen. They’re not completely buried within the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 video games again of the final playoff spot (presently held by the Mets). With 4 intervening groups to leap, the entrance workplace has determined they’re at finest an extended shot to make the postseason. How a lot they’re keen to reshape the roster with the ’25 marketing campaign in thoughts will likely be one of many greater questions of the upcoming week.