Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/15/24

Dan Szymborski: Thanks these in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to seem right here.

Justin: Hello Dan, what are your ideas on the Victor Robles extension?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it’s unreasonable for anybody

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit so much higher final two seasons, however in a restricted function. However there’s actually a great deal of threat

Dan Szymborski: however theres’ upside too. Folks overlook that Robles was as soon as one of many elite prospects and had a *very* stable rookie season

Dan Szymborski: However there’s draw back too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Nick: Why do all the CFs have a decrease DEF on the location than their FRV? Shouldn’t the defensive adjustment be constructive?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, that does appear a bit of odd

Dan Szymborski: My guess since I can’t actually dig into it in two minutes

Dan Szymborski: is that we recenter common to 0 in defensive projections

Dan Szymborski: err measurements, not projections

Dan Szymborski: defensive measurements

Dan Szymborski: Like take a mainly all CF

Dan Szymborski: liek Kiermaier

Dan Szymborski: he’s at 8 FRV

Dan Szymborski: if you happen to look down at worth, fielding is simply 5.7

Dan Szymborski: The typical CF in FRV is an above-average CF

Dan Szymborski: and taht 2.3 run changes appears to be like about proper in recentering it

Dan Szymborski: and it appears to be like like LFs have a barely higher Fielding down within the worth desk

Dan Szymborski: than than their FRV

Dan Szymborski: which additionally jibes

Sodo Mojo: Ideas on the Victor Robles extension, I do know the present kind isn’t sustainable however is there sufficient precise progress there to warrant the small wager?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

tnst3b: Does Tyler O’Neill at present have each of his legs connected?

Dan Szymborski: It will be very best. Undecided in the event that they discovered what trigger dhte an infection

Refugee: What do you make of spikes in efficiency (e.g., guys with a profession ~25% Okay% chopping it in half impulsively)? I assume ZiPS requires a lot of information earlier than it’s keen to take an enormous flip?

Dan Szymborski: Sure, although much less so in one thing like Okay% which has actual adjustments faster

Dan Szymborski: When ZiPS season-to-season calculates a baseline charge simply from the road as a place to begin, it weight these adjustments way more rapidly

Dan Szymborski: Like in 2025 projections, assuming all issues being equal in any other case

Dan Szymborski: the preliminary Okay% charge within the fundamental line baseline can have 2024’s strikeout charge as 136% extra essential than 2023’s striekout charge for a hitter

Dan Szymborski: however for HR charge, it’s solely 71% extra essential and 1B/2B solely 38% extra essential

Ethan Holliday: How has my brother’s ZiPS projection modified after he’s appeared way more snug on the plate in his 2nd main league stint? And the way assured are you he’ll be the 2025 Opening Day beginning 2B?

Dan Szymborski: Not as a lot as you’d suppose as a result of these are all small samples!

Dan Szymborski: He’s been proper on observe

Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, ZiPS wasn’t projecting loopy efficiency instantly

Dan Szymborski: Although it was JUST sufficient uncertainty that if I did my zips high 100 prospects on Might 1st, he would have dropped to #2 behind James Wooden

Dan Szymborski: assuming Yamamoto is off the zips high 100 at this level

Not the Lunch Man: Favourite restaurant in Cincinnati? The place would you advocate for guests?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually eat in Cincinnati all that a lot

Dan Szymborski: my favourite Cincy eating places could also be Nice American Ballpark concessions

Dan Szymborski: thought I’ve most likely tried a superb share of over the rhine locations

Dan Szymborski: like I like 5 on vine

Dan Szymborski: As I grow old and my digestive system turns into an increasing number of grumpy, I’m much less inclined to eat full meals at eating places

druidiful: So does this imply that you’re lastly going to launch the precise creator of ZIPs, if you’re releasing everybody out of your basement?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’s within the oubliette. Didn’t say i used to be launched him

Matt: If Soto and Decide end 1st and 2nd in WAR on the finish of the season will this be the primary time it’s occurred?  What’s the closest it has come?

Dan Szymborski: This would be the first time they completed 1 and a pair of!

Dan Szymborski: Although I’m guessing you imply teammates! 🙂

Dan Szymborski: now, schilling/unit did it in pitchers with the diamondbacks

Dan Szymborski: amongst htiters, Griffey and A-Rod in 1996

Dan Szymborski: Boggs and Greenwell in 1988

Dan Szymborski: Bench and Morgan in 1972

Dan Szymborski: DiMaggio and Gehrig in 1937

Dan Szymborski: Ruth and Gehrig in 1931

Dan Szymborski: The Orioles swept each 1-2 in several combos from 1896-1898

Dan Szymborski: Anson and Gore in 1880

Dan Szymborski: Decan White and O’Rourke in 1876

Dan Szymborski: after which a 4 12 months run of boston purple stockings

top1214: How does Zips react to somebody like Paul Dejong’s final couple of years? He appeared completely cooked for a few years that ought to’ve been prime seasons, had a superb first half final 12 months, then couldn’t hit in any respect, then to being near league common this 12 months. I’ve whiplash on him.

Dan Szymborski: Usually it takes the center floor

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit of underneath and the form is barely totally different (ZiPS had much less offense however extra protection), however ZiPS had DeJong at 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393

Mike Elias: Which of the O’s lurking outfield prospects do you belief probably the most to make an actual main league affect in ’25/26? Bradfield, Fabian, Beavers, Honeycutt? Additionally what if Bradfield made the playoff roster this fall as a pinch runner / defensive substitute…

Dan Szymborski: Bradfield and Honeycutt are probably the most attention-grabbing

Dan Szymborski: Fabian’s going to drop off *laborious* in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: and Beaver hasn’t been that reat

Seamus: What do you concentrate on Masataka Yoshida at this level? He’s been good-to-great because the begin of July after coping with accidents, and he had an excellent stretch final 12 months earlier than sporting down within the second half. I really like watching him hit, however appears laborious to see how he matches into what shall be a crowded Pink Sox lineup as soon as all the highest prospects begin debuting subsequent 12 months.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m nonetheless questioning if he’d play higher protection in anothe rpark

Dan Szymborski: As a result of him being solely DH actually hurts his flexibility. He can hit, but it surely’s not THAT wonderful if you happen to MUST DH him

MF Luder: Assist me end this sentence. Kyle Tucker returns and Houston wins the…

Dan Szymborski: ..prize for being the massive American metropolis with the least zoning legal guidelines

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD FEWEST

Bash Bros: What are the chances Decide will get to 500 hr and Soto will get to 600 hr?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the primary at 57% and the second at 53%, in order that comes out at 30%

Dan Szymborski: they’re most likely not THAT unbiased as a result of they’ll correlate barely due to the possibility of any important change in offensive ranges

Dan Szymborski: although ZiPS doesn’t actually tackle a mannequin of drastically altering league offense

Brian Cashman: Looks as if Rubenstein actually could spend together with his new toy, the Orioles (taking up 2 wage dumps on the deadline!). Ought to I be involved they could bid on a sure excessive OBP OF bat hitting free company this offseason? What different single free agent acquisition would make them take the largest leap from “excellent” to “whoa, scary” in 2025?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure he’ll go THAT far into spending. Although the staff completely may

Dan Szymborski: I want to see a run at locking up a number of the staff’s younger gamers

Dan Szymborski: as a result of the O’s have performed exactly none of that these days

Manufacturing unit of Disappointment: Jhonkensy Noel has been good for a 143 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+ in his first 94 PA, for a 0.6 WAR to this point. How a lot does a primary 100 PAs like this swing ZiPS for a brand new callup—and does it matter that he’s doing this principally as a part-time participant versus an on a regular basis one (though it appears to be like like that’s altering)?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t actually matter, although ZiPS doesn’t contemplate pinch-hitting PAs

Dan Szymborski: (their inclusion truly makes the mannequin barely worse)

Pedro Decide: This Decide 22-24 run looks like a hitter’s model of Pedro doing THAT in the course of the PED period. I do know that’s the purpose of utilizing WAR, although.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a Corridor of Famer now for me

Stu: I have to say I discovered it attention-grabbing to learn not too long ago that Anthony Rendon is a “veteran chief.”

Dan Szymborski: Properly, not all leaders lead their groups to good locations!

Alby: Has intermittent fasting helped you take pleasure in each remaining sandwich extra?

Dan Szymborski: It does, although I’m cautious to not eat like a lunatic on consuming days

The one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve some leftover linguine with white clam sauce in teh fridge

MF Luder: Why can’t Boston upset somebody within the ALDS?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly they’re not imply sufficient to folks

I’m the apple: Had been Seunghwan Oh to have performed his complete profession within the MLB, what does ZiPS suppose his profession WAR can be? We solely acquired three seasons of “The Remaining Boss,” however they have been fairly promising for an older reliever

Dan Szymborski: I can’t do this rapidly, however ZiPS was all the time a fan

99fletching: hello dan, what’s the take care of ronel blanco? particularly, he’s on observe to have the bottom babip ever for a man over 100 ip (at present .199). does something about his profile point out that he’s genuinely elite at suppressing contact, or is that this simply an all time nice variance season, albeit a feel-good one ?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks that he must be *barely* higher than common relative to Houston’s D, however nothing like a .199

Bobby Witt: I’m not saying the Orioles remorse selecting Rutschman, however how fortunate are the Royals that Witt fell to No. 2?

Dan Szymborski: They’re fairly lucky after all!

Dan Szymborski: Witt is ridonkulous

Sam: It appears Craig Breslow has performed a reasonably horrible job of expertise analysis for the redsox. Not including within the offseason after which not promoting on the deadline if he wasn’t going to really tackle any of the staff’s holes. How would you charge his tenure to this point

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless an incomplete. It’s laborious to guage GMs/presidents rapidly as a result of organizations as a complete, together with possession, make choices

Dan Szymborski: you don’t actually have the transaction satrap as a mannequin anymore prefer it was in a majority of locations

James: Ought to a Yainer Diaz extension be on the desk? Or are we unsure that he sticks at catcher lengthy sufficient?

Dan Szymborski: I’m on the fence there. The possibility that he strikes off catcher down the street is important

Dan Szymborski: and there are 4 years till FA

Honkus Wagner: Do you see Santander getting a brand new take care of the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about proper?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS truly suggests 3/60 earlier than the season!

Dan Szymborski: So it might be extra now. Hold on

Dan Szymborski: properly, 3/59

Dan Szymborski: earlier than the season

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to return again round

Bob Loblaw: Juan Soto will end the highest _ hitter of all time

Dan Szymborski: staring

James: Astros have been enjoying .600 ball for 3+ months now. Its a protracted shot, however the place do you set the chances of passing one of many different division leaders and getting a bye?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty low as a result of they must beat *three* groups

Dan Szymborski: There are fewer situations during which the AL East winner slumps

Dan Szymborski: as a result of if solely one of many Orioles/yankees slumps, the *different* staff wins the AL East

Reframing Framing: Now that analytics have proved that pitch framing is indisputably extra helpful than stopping wild pitches and stolen bases, when will the #2 place be renamed, “Framer,” as an alternative of, “Catcher?”

Dan Szymborski: Properly, framing remains to be a part of catching

Dan Szymborski: it’s simply particular location-based catching

Todd Bonzalez: How seemingly will Reds win each the Cy Younger and MVP, however miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly one-in-50?

Mike: What are the possibilities each the Dodgers and the Braves miss the playoffs this 12 months? That appeared unfathomable again in April.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it in entrance of me, however actually lengthy

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers COULD lose the division

Dan Szymborski: however they’re 8 1/2 video games forward of the third wild card staff that *isn’t* the Braves (the Mets)

Dan Szymborski: and 11 video games forward of the subsequent groups (Playing cards/Reds/Giants)

Sam: How would I am going about transitioning the “Clutch” stat to a “Clutch+”? Is it so simple as multiplying the present equation by 100?

Dan Szymborski: not REALLY

Dan Szymborski: you’d want a Clutch charge

Dan Szymborski: you then coudl do it

James: Lets (very hypothetically) say that Reinsdorf hires a high finish GM, provides him a high 5 price range after which stays away from the entrance workplace. What’s the earliest the White Sox may make the playoffs once more?

Dan Szymborski: 2027?

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: In accordance with the Fangraphs WAR Leaderboard, the White Sox have an mixture staff WAR of 1.9, surpassing the overall of the 2003 Tigers at 1.7.  In fact, that is nonetheless a piece in progress for Chicago as we will’t but account for the ultimate 1.5 months of a depleted roster going through off in opposition to a bunch of contenders (Mets, Orioles, Pink Sox, Guardians, Padres, and Giants, per Davy’s article).  Would you wager on the White Sox to complete with extra wins AND accrue extra whole WAR than the 2003 Tigers, would you?  Dropping means chugging a blended up can of skyline chili.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what do I get if I win?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not ingesting a chili smoothie on an in depth wager

Teddy: How do you venture defensive worth of prospects.

Dan Szymborski: erroneously for positive

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a TZ-esque measure for minor league protection

Dan Szymborski: I’ve the precise hit location of all balls hit within the minors and a probability-based technique like David Pinto used to have

Down by the River Ryan: You have got stated that larger change = extra sign. What do you make of Tyler Fitzgerald’s energy?

Dan Szymborski: The advance ought to be fairly large

Dan Szymborski: although his energy increase hasn’t fairly matched the unerlying knowledge

McGraw45: Merrill is on observe for a 4+ warfare season and Zips has 3-year projections of ~1.4 warfare a 12 months. Is that due to a excessive BABIP/low stroll charge or simply the character of the beast?

Dan Szymborski: It’s as a result of these are the preseason projections

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is clearly going to be fairly much more optimistic now

Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

.707 SLG: At what level does ZIPS mainly surrender and say, “I assume Decide is simply… this man now”

Dan Szymborski: Besides right here’s the factor – at his stage, the chance is *all* one facet

Dan Szymborski: so even if you happen to assume a .700 SLG is his baseline, that doesn’t imply he’s equally as more likely to grow to be an .800 SLG man as a .600 SLG man

Phil: Kristian Campbell’s teammates are apparently calling him “Barry Bonds.” I assume I can reside together with his being not fairly nearly as good as Bonds, however ought to he be increased on prospect lists than he after the stretch he’s had in AA?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually going to maneuver up fairly a bit by ZiPS

Joseph: Dan, have seen just a few mentions in articles these days about “X participant has elevated his bat velocity by X mph and his numbers have jumped”.

Joseph: Dan, have seen just a few articles about “X participant has elevated his bat velocity by X mph and his numbers have jumped” these days.  Exterior of the plain correlation that increased bat velocity results in increased exit velocities, have you ever seen any work by way of in-season bat velocity adjustments and whether or not they correlate to something significant?  Are they statistically correlated to elevated outcomes?  How lengthy does it take by way of time period to grow to be sticky?  What they regular baseline is for bat velocity fluctuations and the way a lot deviance one must see to matter?  Thanks!!

Dan Szymborski: It’s most likely good, however I feel folks bounce the gun a bit of an excessive amount of

Dan Szymborski: now, bat velocity correlates extremely with different issues that we DO know are predictive of higher outcomes

Dan Szymborski: however even with that extremely seemingly speculation, folks ought to be cautious direct claims with numbers

Jake A: Does ZIPS incorporate Statcast knowledge? If not, is it possible as an avenue of enchancment sooner or later?

Dan Szymborski: Yup – I overlook off-hand that entered the primary mannequin, I feel 2019?

Yeah Properly Hiura Towel: If Ohtani hit ninth within the order as an alternative of first, how a lot WAR would he lose?

Dan Szymborski: About 20% of offensive WAR, assuming no different adjustments

Rob Manfred: ESPN ran a narrative this morning about introducing a 6-inning minimal for beginning pitchers. What’s your most well-liked treatment (if any) to revive the prominence of the beginning pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a difficult factor to control, since you don’t desire a situation during which you find yourself with extra accidents

Dan Szymborski: Although MLB has the fitting concept, in that altering guidelines is without doubt one of the finest basic methods to alter types of the sport

Dan Szymborski: Pizza Cutter wrote about it yesterday

Dan Szymborski: and it’s a topic I speak about

Dan Szymborski: (nto the innings change particularly)

Visitor: 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393

somebody’s gotta be in that fifty fifth percentile! (do they?)

Dan Szymborski: properly, 1% of gamers would hopefully be exactly there!

David Forst: What occurred to Ryan Noda?

Dan Szymborski: He was a stopgappish sort 1B who had a pleasant little BABIP-aided run final 12 months and acquired off to a horrible begin this 12 months

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely had him at 210/331/381 coming into the season and the opposite projectiosn weren’t that totally different

John: Does ZiPS account for minor league struggles of a participant like Bobby Miller, or does it rely solely on previous MLB efficiency?

Dan Szymborski: it takes minors under consideration

Dan Szymborski: besides rehab

Pat: Are we at an all-time low in veteran all time hitting greats..not less than so far as conventional stats are involved? Freddie Freeman is the energetic chief in hits, runs, RBI..but ranks under a hundred and fortieth all time in every. Can’t determine if that is regular or a bizarre one off.

Dan Szymborski: We’re undoubtedly pretty low in veteran hitters proper now

Dan Szymborski: There are solely 4 hitters 35 or older with one WAR this season: Santana, d’Arnaud, Rojas, J.D. Martinez

Dan Szymborski: so when you have fewer veteran guys, you’re going to haven’t as mny with lofty totals

john: Function request, be happy to toss it within the trash.  Fangraphs does their commerce worth sequence and so they rank farm programs, however I’d love to only see each group ranked by surplus worth, main leaguers and minor leaguers collectively.  Baseball commerce values kinda had one thing like this however they went behind a paywall, and I would favor if ZiPS have been used.

Dan Szymborski: I want to determine an automatic method to do it

mile low: Zips had Wyatt Langford .346 wOBA for 12 months.  Trying like precise shall be decrease.  Would you continue to wager future all-star?

Dan Szymborski: AN all-star look? Positive, although the upside has come down a bit

Visitor: Is Juan Soto extra more likely to age worse than common since he has “previous particular person” abilities and his bat velocity is under common?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fairly attainable, however bear in mind, these are percentages – younger participant abilities don’t essentially imply ageing properly and vice versa

Visitor: if the Orioles had a greenback for each high prospect callup who struck out 50% of the time in a brief first stint, they’d have not less than two {dollars}, which isn’t so much, but it surely’s bizarre that it occurred twice in a single 12 months. (it might be slightly much less bizarre from the Rockies)

Visitor: somebody who desires to “name out” projection programs for being too low on Decide ought to purpose at Steamer as an alternative of ZiPS, however I assume these guys don’t maintain weekly chats

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually “do” projection wars

Dan Szymborski: I current my product, give as a lot data away as I can justify, and as a lot element of the mannequin as I can, and let outcomes converse for themselves

Visitor: btw did the thought to replace these 1x/12 months get anyplace?

Dan Szymborski: I’m pondering of doing ASB subsequent 12 months

Dan Szymborski: or possibly July 1st

Phil: Fascinating about rehab. Do you simply ignore these stints? I all the time marvel what will be discovered from them, significantly proper now whem Boston media is reporting breathlessly on Casas’s at-bats.

Dan Szymborski: I simply discover they create noise

wheelhouse: wait, who advised that person who juan soto has below-average bat velocity

Dan Szymborski: i assumed that bat was a stray phrase added

dontcare: I’m going to be very unhappy when two of the three NL West groups must face off within the WC spherical

Ken Jennings Says: The Ides of August is the thirteenth. You’re two days late.

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that observe, it’s time fo rme to move out for one more week

laughingstock: Are there any gamers/prospects with extraordinarily bimodal future worth projections? One thing approaching “99% of the time they’ll be a utility man, however there’s a 1% probability they may truly be the subsequent Willie Mays”

Dan Szymborski: no one as large because the final two guys to be REALLY bimodal: Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech