The DraftKings Travers Stakes serves as a significant inflection level within the season for 3-year-olds, therefore the nickname “Mid-Summer time Derby” that signifies the 1 ¼-mile Saratoga race’s significance.
The Travers often attracts a deep, aggressive area, however this yr feels a bit totally different with the hype meter climbing because of the presence of celebrity filly Thorpedo Anna. The Longines Kentucky Oaks winner provides to a area that boasts Belmont Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve runner-up Sierra Leone, and unbeaten stakes winner Unmatched Knowledge amongst a area of eight.
Not solely is the 2024 Travers a compelling horse race, however storylines abound.
Dornoch can all however cement champion 3-year-old male honors with a win for a partnership that features retired Main League Baseball star Jayson Werth. Thorpedo Anna tackles males after runaway Grade 1 wins within the Kentucky Oaks, the DK Horse Acorn Stakes, and the Teaching Membership American Oaks. Final yr’s champion 2-year-old male, Fierceness, has turn into the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of racing, as able to a dominant efficiency as he’s of a disappointment. Sierra Leone, as soon as thought-about the division chief, has solely himself guilty for the shortage of a career-defining win on his résumé however can rectify that on Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Listed here are 5 questions that have to be answered within the 2024 Travers, which is shaping as much as be THE race of the summer season:
Will the true Fierceness please rise up? When Fierceness runs his “A” race, he’s the quickest 3-year-old on this yr’s class. The issue is, it’s nearly inconceivable to guess if and when he’ll unfurl a monster effort. Positive, you’ll be able to take a look at the previous performances and see he has alternated a great race with a foul one and, primarily based upon that sample, he’s due for a dud within the Travers. However I don’t suppose it’s that straightforward. Even proprietor Mike Repole mentioned this week that it’s troublesome to foretell what sort of race his colt will run in a given stakes. I suppose that is the true Fierceness, a racehorse with dazzling potential however maddening inconsistency.
If I needed to guess, I’d say perhaps there’s a 30% probability final yr’s champion 2-year-old male runs his race, which might make him the more than likely winner within the area. Pace figures point out an “A” race sends Fierceness to the winner’s circle, however I’ll fade him right here due to the 1 ¼-mile distance, the anticipated quick worth, and the presence of a number of different early pace horses.
How good is the unbeaten runner Unmatched Knowledge? The quick and noncommittal reply is: I feel he’s actually good. Sadly for Unmatched Knowledge, the Travers isn’t a stakes race for actually good, it’s for the perfect 3-year-old grime horses on the planet on the season’s midpoint.
Whether or not or not Unmatched Knowledge matches with the likes of Dornoch, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna, and Sierra Leone is the way more pertinent query. Primarily based on Equibase Pace Figures, Unmatched Knowledge is correct on par with the highest runners. His Beyer Pace Figures, however, point out he nonetheless has some catching as much as do on Fierceness, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. But with solely three races on his résumé, together with a one-length win in his stakes debut within the Curlin Stakes, there’s vital motive to imagine there’s room to enhance. If he does take a step ahead, Unmatched Knowledge is a win candidate.
They are saying “tempo makes the race,” so what are we when it comes to a Travers tempo state of affairs? There was a lot discuss how Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, and star filly Thorpedo Anna all boast tactical pace and the tempo may very well be frisky within the Travers… and that’s true. There are also others within the Travers with early pace, such because the aforementioned Unmatched Knowledge and Ohio Derby winner Batten Down. In reality, the latter posted back-to-back dominant front-running wins earlier than settling off the tempo within the Jim Dandy Stakes Introduced by Mohegan Solar and fading late in a third-place end behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. It might not shock me to see Batten Down’s jockey Junior Alvarado be very aggressive early within the Travers and problem Dornoch for the early lead. That in all probability could be Batten Down’s finest shot to win.
No one desires to lose the Travers within the opening quarter-mile, however I do imagine the tempo can be brisk for a 1 ¼-mile race and there can be a number of runners combating for the lead or to safe a perfect place tucked in simply behind the pacesetter(s).
That would set the Travers up nicely for stalker Company Energy, the runner-up to Unmatched Knowledge within the Curlin Stakes, in addition to closers Honor Marie and Sierra Leone.
Will Thorpedo Anna wind up leaving the beginning gate as the favourite? There isn’t a doubt the Kentucky Oaks winner driving a dominant three-race successful streak – all in Grade 1 races towards 3-year-old fillies – will take in a ton of betting {dollars} as a robust sentimental favourite dealing with males for the primary time.
Nonetheless, I feel Dornoch’s back-to-back wins within the Belmont Stakes and Haskell plus Fierceness’s potential for brilliance will result in certainly one of them being favored. I do imagine it is going to be shut within the betting amongst Dornoch (5-2 on the morning line), Fierceness (3-1 morning line), Thorpedo Anna (3-1 morning line), and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (7-2 morning line). It is a rattling good horse race!
My guess on the ultimate odds is Dornoch at about 2-1, Thorpedo Anna and Fierceness at about 5-2, and Sierra Leone at 5-1 or so.
Can Sierra Leone places all of it collectively and earn a press release win? Sierra Leone has gained some large races, little question, together with a Grade 1 victory within the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, however he got here up a nostril quick within the Kentucky Derby after being in superb place within the stretch after which within the Belmont Stakes when third as the favourite. The Gun Runner colt has had his points lugging in throughout the stretch run that price him within the Triple Crown races, however a Travers win would absolutely wipe away a lot, if not all, of that disappointment.
I used to be inspired by Sierra Leone’s runner-up end to Fierceness within the Jim Dandy Stakes. He made an attention-grabbing transfer on the flip to rally into competition from final and didn’t react negatively when Batten Down got here in on him and crowded him in early stretch. No, he didn’t catch Fierceness within the Jim Dandy, however Fierceness had a dream journey in that race tucked in simply behind a average tempo. With a minimum of three or 4 Travers runners preferring to be on or close to the lead, the Travers may arrange significantly better for Sierra Leone. He’s very according to three wins, three seconds, and one third in seven races so if he runs straight within the Saratoga stretch, sure, I imagine he’ll earn his marquee victory within the Travers.
THE PICK: Sierra Leone
BETTING STRATEGY: Play Sierra Leone to win and on high of Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Company Energy within the trifecta.
TRIFECTA: 2-1-7