For the second consecutive yr, Matt Chapman stands as one of many prime impending free agent hitters. Until he suffers a big damage within the subsequent few weeks, he’s all however assured to opt-out of the ultimate two years and $36MM on his take care of the Giants.
Jon Heyman of the New York Publish reported a pair weeks in the past that San Francisco was hopeful of retaining the star third baseman on a brand new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as a lot to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, telling her that the edges have had some discussions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi framed issues equally, telling Slusser the events have “had conversations” and “lively dialogue” on a long-term association.
That’s relatively obscure terminology that actually doesn’t counsel something is imminent. It’s nonetheless affirmation there’s some quantity of mutual curiosity in conserving Chapman in San Francisco. He’s a California native who has a longstanding relationship with skipper Bob Melvin relationship again to their time in Oakland.
Chapman hasn’t had any drawback acclimating to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his typically sturdy defensive grades into tonight’s sport in Seattle. He’s at 20+ homers for the fifth time in his profession with a robust 11% stroll proportion. Chapman’s 24.3% strikeout charge is a bit greater than the league mark however could be his lowest charge since 2019. It’s excellent all-around manufacturing regardless of a sluggish begin. Chapman limped to a .266 on-base proportion by way of the top of April. He has been some of the productive infielders within the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers relationship again to Could 1.
It’s the inverse sample to Chapman’s 2023 marketing campaign. He was arguably the very best participant within the majors by way of the season’s first month final yr. His offensive numbers plummeted after that and he hit the market with one thing of a down-arrow trajectory. Chapman had a simple name to say no a qualifying supply from the Blue Jays, however he and his camp on the Boras Company didn’t discover the cash they had been in search of. It wasn’t till the start of March that he inked a $54MM assure with a number of opt-outs.
Between a signing bonus, his wage, and a buyout (assuming he opts out), Chapman is making $20MM this yr. That’s about what he’d have made if he’d taken the QO from Toronto — though the additional two years current extra long-term safety than the qualifying supply would have supplied.
Chapman will presumably strive once more to land a deal that pushes into 9 figures. He’ll play virtually all of subsequent season at age 32. It’s tough however not unimaginable to tug a $100MM+ deal at that age. As proven on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been 4 nine-figure offers inside the final decade for hitters who had been 32 or older. Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact led the best way amongst free agent contracts. Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new cash on five-year phrases.
These gamers had been all higher hitters than Chapman has been. As a plus defender at third base, he offers extra worth on that facet of the ball than all of them, other than possibly Machado. Groups may very well be cautious about paying for protection right into a participant’s mid-30s.
A five-year time period for Chapman would run by way of his age-36 season. That’s the purpose by way of which Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon had been paid on seven-year contracts (each of which have been disasters for the staff). Chapman actually isn’t going to strategy Rendon’s $35MM annual wage. Bryant’s $26MM AAV is a extra reasonable goal, albeit on a what’d possible be a four- or five-year time period as a substitute of seven.
Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu every signed by way of age-37 as free agent third basemen. Each ensures checked in simply south of $100MM. These contracts are just a few years previous and had been each signed after the participant declined a qualifying supply, thereby attaching draft compensation. The Giants can not make Chapman a QO — the CBA prevents a participant from receiving a couple of in his profession — so he’d hit the market completely unencumbered. Barring some sort of hometown low cost, Chapman presumably wouldn’t be involved in forgoing a free agent journey for lower than the Donaldson and LeMahieu ensures.
Alex Bregman leads the upcoming free agent class at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 possibility and the category drops off dramatically from there. Final winter’s group was even shallower. Assuming one considers Cody Bellinger primarily an outfielder relatively than a primary baseman, Chapman’s $54MM assure led all infielders.
As Slusser observes, a Chapman extension could must be San Francisco’s greatest funding below this entrance workplace. The Giants have solely signed one nine-figure deal since they employed Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations in the course of the 2018-19 offseason: final winter’s six-year, $113MM pact for 25-year-old middle fielder Jung Hoo Lee. They’ve taken loads of larger swings and had been a failed bodily away from signing Carlos Correa for $350MM, however they’ve but to really land a home free agent on a long-term deal. They’ve been far more amenable to shorter-term pickups with opt-outs for gamers whose markets didn’t develop as they’d hoped (e.g. Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Blake Snell, Chapman).
The Giants have round $132MM in assured cash for subsequent season. Anticipated opt-outs for Snell and Chapman would knock that all the way down to roughly $85MM. Lee, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray (assuming he doesn’t choose out this yr) and Jordan Hicks are the one gamers signed past subsequent yr. That doesn’t embody arbitration projections for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Camilo Doval. Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential commerce or non-tender candidates. The Giants ought to have a very good quantity of payroll flexibility even when they keep everybody from their arbitration group.