The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola early within the offseason, made a giant push to signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and an opportunity nonetheless stays that they might make yet another splash within the free agent pitching market. In accordance with USA As we speak’s Bob Nightengale, Philadelphia can be open to bringing Blake Snell into the fold, however not on a long-term deal. A one-year pact or a shorter-term contract can be the Phils’ desire, or fairly probably the sort of three-year cope with a number of opt-outs lately signed by different Boras Company purchasers Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
The information isn’t shocking within the sense that loads of groups would equally like to have Snell on these phrases, although the Phillies’ curiosity in Snell was described by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark again in November as “lukewarm.” In Stark’s view, the Phils noticed Snell as a fallback plan in the event that they couldn’t add their higher-priority targets (i.e. Nola or Yamamoto). There may be additionally the truth that the Phillies have already got a set rotation on paper, with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez combining to type a really stable beginning 5.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken a number of occasions this offseason about how a lot he likes his rotation choices, and about how the Phils’ different forays into the beginning pitching market had been targeted on depth additions. That mentioned, Dombrowski additionally famous final month that “I can’t let you know that someone doesn’t fall into your lap sooner or later the place you say, ’Gee, that’s a possibility we will’t flip down.’ ” It appears potential that Snell’s seemingly restricted market may now signify such a risk for the Phillies to become involved.
Snell’s reported willingness to contemplate shorter-term presents may imply {that a} five- or six-year contract merely won’t be on the desk at this late date within the offseason. Even again in mid-February, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald questioned if Snell can be higher off aiming for a really excessive common annual worth inside a short-term deal, so the left-hander may then doubtlessly decide out subsequent winter when the market is extra favorable and extra groups is perhaps prepared to spend. The Yankees, Giants, and Angels have all been linked to Snell’s market, and that listing most likely widens significantly ought to the reigning NL Cy Younger winner begin specializing in simply short-term contracts with opt-outs hooked up.
Philadelphia is undoubtedly in win-now mode, and each Dombrowski and crew chairman John Middleton have a historical past of constructing aggressive strikes searching for a World Collection crown. Signing Snell and transferring to both some sort of six-man rotation or in making Sanchez one thing of an over-qualified swingman would enhance what’s already rotation, and no postseason opponent would need to face the trio of Snell, Wheeler, and Nola inside a brief sequence.
Whilst a short-term signing, nonetheless, Snell has its drawbacks for the Phillies. The membership must surrender $1MM in worldwide bonus pool funds and its second- and fifth-highest picks within the 2024 draft, as a result of Snell rejected a qualifying provide and since Philadelphia was a luxury-tax payor in 2023. In actual fact, the Phils have crossed the Aggressive Steadiness Tax threshold in every of the final two years and are poised to make it a trifecta in 2024, with a projected CBT variety of $261MM (as per RosterResource).
This determine is already over the second-highest penalty threshold of $257MM, and including Snell would absolutely put Philadelphia over the third tier of $277MM. Groups who cross that third tier face the additional penalty of a ten-slot drop for his or her first choice within the following season’s draft, in addition to even steeper monetary prices. As a three-time tax payor, the Phillies can be taxed at a 95% charge for each greenback spent above the $277MM mark.
For a one-year splurge on Snell, Middleton may deem the CBT prices as price it if the left-hander is a remaining piece who can nab the Phillies that elusive championship. However the danger is apparent, as if Snell struggles in 2024 or will get injured, instantly what may’ve seemed like a one-year cope with Snell opting out now appears to be like extra like a fuller dedication or two or three years, and an extra pressure on the Phillies’ books. This won’t be very best for a crew that has been prioritizing an extension with Wheeler, and many of the Phils’ most outstanding gamers are signed by a minimum of 2025.