I wish to begin off by saying that I used to be devastated — devastated — to study that Nolan Arenado reportedly vetoed a commerce to the Houston Astros. I assume it might’ve made some baseball sense, as Alex Bregman’s departure leaves a emptiness at third base, and new acquisition Isaac Paredes might simply slide throughout the diamond to first. Plus, Arenado is a three-time Nationwide League dwelling run chief with an extended historical past of hitting the ball within the air and to the pull facet. Absolutely he’d discover one thing to love concerning the Crawford Bins.
However principally, I needed this to occur as a result of I had a joke lined up.
In my time at FanGraphs, I’ve developed a status for stretching the boundaries of style and sense in show copy. Often, after I produce a very odious pun, somebody will reply: “How lengthy have you ever been sitting on that one?” Consider it or not, the reply is sort of all the time a matter of minutes. I try to make bespoke, handcrafted groaners and forehead-slappers recent to order.
However on uncommon events, I do write a pun upfront and maintain it again till the best second. This isn’t how I normally work, principally as a result of I lack the mandatory persistence and restraint. Like a toddler who’s happy with the worm he picked up off the sidewalk, I normally wish to share what I’ve obtained proper now.
So after I let you know I’ve been ready on the best second to make use of “Nationwide Arenadics and House Administration” for 10 full years, I need you to understand how a lot effort that took. They usually teased me, dangled the potential for Arenado enjoying in Houston, mere miles from the Johnson Spaceflight Middle, for a crew with a space-derived nickname… after which Arenado himself snatched it away.
I’m disconsolate. Please maintain all my calls.
Even with out the hilarious NASA joke, Arenado has been one of many most-discussed gamers this offseason, as a result of the Cardinals certain appear keen to maneuver him. A mere 24 months in the past, that might’ve been no drawback. Arenado was 31, coming off a season of a 149 wRC+ and seven.2 WAR, each profession highs.
And “profession excessive” means extra for Arenado than it does for many gamers. Along with his offensive accomplishments, he began his profession with 10 straight Gold Glove seasons, incomes 44.8 WAR via 2022. A 31-year-old with that CV turns into a shoo-in for the Corridor of Fame with any type of cheap hang-around part.
Sadly, age does to baseball gamers what nationwide enlargement does to regional quick meals chains. Arenado is at present two-thirds of the best way via a nine-year, $275 million contract that began in 2019. Evaluate Arenado’s efficiency throughout his final 4 full seasons in Colorado — that are consultant of the participant he was when he earned that contract — to his first two seasons in St. Louis, to his most up-to-date two seasons.
What Walks on 4 Legs within the Morning, Two Legs at Noon, Three Legs within the Night, and 6.8% of the Time Over the Previous Two Years?
| Years | G | PA | HR | BB% | Ok% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-19 | 158 | 678 | 39 | 9.8% | 15.6% | .304 | .372 | .575 | 130 | 24.1 | 13.5 | 6.0 |
| 2021-22 | 153 | 637 | 32 | 8.1% | 13.2% | .274 | .335 | .514 | 131 | 23.2 | 10.7 | 5.8 |
| 2023-24 | 148 | 624 | 21 | 6.8% | 15.5% | .269 | .320 | .427 | 104 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 |
All stats are seasonal averages
It nonetheless says Hoagiefest on the signal, however you and I each know that the standard of the bread went within the crapper when Wawa began opening shops in Florida. Equally, it nonetheless says Arenado on the jersey, however the numbers are rather more Joey Ortiz-y.
Arenado continues to be a great defender, however not the man who drew comparisons to Scott Rolen and Brooks Robinson. Extra worryingly, the ability that made him a star in Colorado goes, going gone. Even after transferring from the arid, skinny air of Denver to the muggy, thick environment of Mark Twain Nation, Arenado hit 34 homers in 2021 and 30 in 2022. Then 26 in 2023, and solely 16 within the marketing campaign that simply ended.
A one-year blip? I believe not. In 2024, 42 third basemen logged not less than 300 plate appearances within the majors. Arenado was thirty sixth in HardHit%, one spot behind Ildemaro Vargas and simply two spots forward of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Now, Paredes was fortieth amongst third basemen in HardHit%, and I simply wrote that he might hit 30 homers subsequent yr. That is based mostly Paredes’ batted ball profile being nicely suited to a house park the place the left discipline wall is so shut the batter can scent what the followers within the first row of the Crawford Bins are consuming. So perhaps Arenado might do one thing related.
There’s a few of that in Arenado’s sport. Paredes was first amongst certified hitters in pull price on fly balls in 2024; Arenado was nineteenth. But it surely’s extra probably than not that Arenado’s final 30-homer season is already previously. Whichever crew trades for him is getting a mean hitter who defends the place nicely and doesn’t strike out a lot, however not an MVP candidate.
As motivated because the Cardinals are to get off of Arenado’s contract earlier than everybody finds out about this growth, they’re apparently keen to make allowances. Of their report on Arenado’s veto of a commerce to the Astros, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that the Cardinals are keen to pay down some — however not all — of Arenado’s remaining contract.
The sticker value of these three years is $74 million: $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027, with $12 million of that deferred. The Rockies are already chargeable for $5 million in every of the subsequent two seasons, by advantage of the commerce that despatched Arenado to St. Louis within the first place. And based on the MLB.com report, the Cardinals had been keen to ship between $15 million and $20 million to Houston to melt the blow.
All instructed, that lowers the sensible value of Arenado’s contract to someplace within the low $40 million vary over three years. If Arenado’s a mean third baseman over that point, that’s a positive-value proposition.
So the Astros appeared to assume, however sadly, Arenado didn’t wish to go there. Denton reported throughout the Winter Conferences that Arenado has six groups on his… I assume you could possibly name it a Sure-Commerce Record. These six: The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Purple Sox.
The Padres and Purple Sox are extraordinarily, extraordinarily set at third base for the subsequent three seasons. The Phillies even have an incumbent All-Star at third, Alec Bohm, and though he’s turn into the autumn man for his or her first-round exit, Bohm is healthier and cheaper than Arenado. I don’t see the Phillies including Arenado except Bohm will get traded first. Max Muncy in all probability wouldn’t be enjoying third base for the Dodgers in an excellent world, however with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman within the lineup, that’s the place Muncy will stay. The Angels have Anthony Rendon below contract for 2 extra seasons — as a lot as they’ve tried to make him vanish via telekinesis — although his damage historical past and detached manufacturing when wholesome makes Arenado a extra believable addition there.
That’s in all probability why Arenado has reportedly volunteered to maneuver to first base with a view to facilitate a commerce. However there’s no level in buying and selling for Arenado in any respect if he had been solely going to play first base. A 104 wRC+ is appropriate for a 3rd baseman, particularly a great defender. Not a lot for a primary baseman. Particularly not at a price of $15 million a yr, plus the prospects required to accumulate him.
So the window of potentialities for an Arenado commerce at present requires one of many following: The Phillies commerce Bohm; the Mets transfer Mark Vientos to first base and don’t re-sign Pete Alonso; the Purple Sox transfer Rafael Devers to first, which might require buying and selling not less than certainly one of Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida; or for the Angels to surrender on Rendon.
There are a number of outs, however every of them requires supplementary strikes — in some circumstances, a reasonably vital roster shakeup for a crew with restricted commerce capital — and Arenado actually isn’t the type of participant you progress heaven and earth to accumulate anymore. That’s on prime of the wage dedication, which is substantial even when the Cardinals and Rockies are chipping in, plus the prospects essential to make the commerce within the first place. (Assuming this isn’t a straight wage dump just like the Cody Bellinger commerce.)
Looks like it’d simply be simpler to signal Bregman.
Arenado labored exhausting to place himself able to ask for that no-trade clause within the first place, and he’s entitled to make use of it nevertheless he sees match. However getting him out of St. Louis was going to require a good bit of needle-threading even below superb circumstances, and I don’t see a path ahead except he opens up his record. Which, for the report, is what I believe will occur.
So perhaps hope is just not lifeless, and I’ll get to make use of that NASA joke in any case.