What does it price to signal a dwelling legend? About $15 million, it seems. Three-time Cy Younger winner Justin Verlander is taking his skills to the West Coast for the primary time, having inked a one-year take care of the San Francisco Giants for that aforementioned sum.
It’s one other daring signing for newly appointed supreme prefect of baseball operations Gerald D. “Buster” Posey, who formally took cost somewhat over three months in the past. And but — if we give Posey the credit score he’s reportedly due for the Matt Chapman extension — greater than 1 / 4 of San Francisco’s payroll (in response to CBT math) is now dedicated to gamers Posey is liable for signing.
However Verlander may very effectively have price extra. He made almost thrice as a lot final season, and had he hit the 140-inning threshold in 2024, he would’ve been capable of activate a participant choice value $35 million, not $15 million. So why take such an enormous haircut? That is Justin Verlander, for God’s sake.
The phrase “it takes one to know one” certainly doesn’t apply to future Corridor of Famers. You don’t want Posey’s immaculate taking part in credentials to understand what Verlander’s executed over his profession.
One of many extra fascinating conversations that’s been taking place round baseball not too long ago issues how Corridor of Fame voters ought to deal with beginning pitchers on this period of five-and-dive and a number of Tommy John surgical procedures. Principally no person is placing up conventional Corridor of Fame numbers anymore, and the first-time candidacy of Félix Hernández makes for an apparent entry level to the problem. One thing goes to have to offer, or else we’re going to go a long time between Corridor of Fame beginning pitchers, the argument goes.
After which it stops for the required caveat: Aside from Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Verlander.
As a result of Verlander’s accomplishments — 262 wins, 3,415 strikeouts, 82.0 WAR, a Rookie of the 12 months Award, an MVP, three Cy Younger Awards, and 4 different top-three finishes — play in any period underneath any commonplace. He’s not solely a Corridor of Famer, he’s a first-ballot Corridor of Famer. And never solely is he a first-ballot Corridor of Famer, his candidacy is such that any voter who leaves him off their poll goes to be (appropriately) dismissed as a crank.
Certainly Posey is aware of this. His Giants defeated Verlander’s Tigers within the 2012 World Collection. In reality, Verlander was already a star when Posey was merely a prospect — even a pitching prospect, of kinds. In 2008, Posey posted a 1.17 ERA with six saves as a two-way participant at Florida State. That 12 months, the Giants drafted him fifth total. Verlander completed that season with an excellent 600 main league innings pitched for his profession.
Verlander is simply 4 years older than Posey. The Giants’ baseball ops ringmaster admittedly retired younger, however not that younger. Verlander turns 42 subsequent month, and like most civic establishments that got here into being in the course of the Reagan Administration, he’s falling aside.
Verlander aged extraordinarily effectively, all issues thought-about; he received two of his Cy Younger Awards after he turned 36, with certainly one of them coming after he missed (primarily) two full seasons with a torn UCL. At age 40, he commanded $43.3 million a 12 months in a free agent contract from the Mets, and pitched effectively that season, which included a second midseason commerce to Houston.
However final 12 months was actually dangerous. Jay Jaffe broke down the gory particulars in September, because the unthinkable was changing into more and more possible: The Astros must depart Verlander off their postseason roster. And that’s not simply an artifact of Houston’s nice pitching depth; Verlander’s fastball misplaced velocity, his changeup misplaced some run, his curveball wasn’t curving, his slider wasn’t sliding.
In his Cy Younger season of 2022, Verlander threw 4 pitch varieties; opponents couldn’t handle a .200 batting common or a .300 slugging in opposition to any of them. In 2024, Verlander’s two commonest pitches had been his fastball (in opposition to which opponents hit .299 and slugged .497) and his curveball (.340 and .560).
I apologize for being barely unkind with this subsequent half, however listed here are some chosen stats from two veteran beginning pitchers who hit the free agent market this winter. One is Verlander. Are you able to guess which one, and who the opposite is?
Two Pitchers in 2024
| Participant | ERA | FIP | Opp. wOBA | Okay% | BB% | BF/GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 5.62 | 4.41 | .357 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 23.9 |
| B | 5.48 | 4.78 | .337 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 23.3 |
Participant B is Verlander. Participant A is Patrick Corbin.
And on the threat of complaining about each the meals and the portion dimension, Corbin stayed wholesome all 12 months and Verlander didn’t. Two stints on the IL — one for shoulder irritation and one other for neck discomfort — restricted Verlander to 17 begins and simply 90 1/3 innings. That’s a profession low, aside from his two-start debut in 2005 and his Tommy John-imposed sabbatical.
It’s why Verlander is making $15 million to play for the Giants as an alternative of $35 million to play for the Astros, which appears like it could’ve been Armageddon for a group that simply traded Kyle Tucker earlier than he bought too costly.
These days, $15 million doesn’t purchase all that a lot on the beginning pitching market. I’m hardly the primary observer to note that Verlander bought the identical assured contract from San Francisco that Alex Cobb bought from Verlander’s outdated group, the Tigers. Cobb made solely three begins final 12 months, and at 37, he’s not that a lot youthful than Verlander. Nor does he have something like Verlander’s celebrity historical past.
However $15 million is nearly what it prices to get a no. 5 starter for a 12 months on the free agent market. And as onerous as it’s to consider, that’s about the place Verlander slots into the Giants’ rotation, behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison.
Posey, the retired celebrity with zero baseball ops expertise, is exclusive amongst baseball’s 30 prince-bishops of roster development. His appointment is a throwback to an older, much less enlightened age. It’s Wayne Gretzky teaching the Arizona Coyotes or Ted Williams managing the Senators.
I’m fascinated by Posey’s each transfer. Partially as a result of, within the post-Theo Epstein gold rush to stuff each entrance workplace with non-public college MBAs till you run out of team-branded quarter-zips, entrance workplace thought has gotten fairly same-y. No matter Posey does, it’s completely different, and subsequently fascinating. But when he wades into this job with out correct forethought and humility, it may be a extremely entertaining failure.
And but, as a lot as my angle towards the present Giants may finest be described as “skeptical rubbernecking,” I do know that Posey shouldn’t be an fool. He’s not signing Verlander as a result of he thinks he’s getting a no. 1 starter for the price of a evenly used Cleveland Guardians castoff. He’s signing Verlander as a result of, like each group, the Giants want innings in bulk. And whereas Verlander may be cooked, it bears repeating that he was damage final 12 months and taking part in in an unfavorable residence ballpark. Furthermore, Verlander allowed his highest opponent BABIP in a decade, and his xERA was greater than a run and a half decrease than his ERA. There’s an argument (I don’t know if I purchase it, but it surely exists) that Verlander’s decline has been exaggerated by rotten batted ball luck. Which might make him ripe for a bounce-back season, even regardless of his superior age.
Unkink Verlander’s neck, settle his rating with the BABIP gods, and put him in a stadium with an enormous outfield; you may get 100 league-average innings out of him. Certainly that’s a worthwhile funding of $15 million on this market. Not less than, that appears to be the logic. We’ll see if it seems to be sound.