2024 Prospect Week Chat | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thanks for trying out all of our Prospect Week work for the location, together with this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get proper into it.

Andrew: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than quite a lot of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to indicate to rise up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson quite a bit, ideally he performs a little bit higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Lengthy-term dev venture, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy

Jesse: Do the Mets have a high farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects in the course of the commerce deadline final yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox

Free Kyle Manzardo: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. Extra a forty five sort

Angelus Novus: Why is Hollday (70) graded greater than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you are taking over the subsequent decade, from that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Higher perceived probability to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Robust to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.

JDP’s greatest fan: What’s holding again JDP from being a high 100 prospect? Simply must see a bit extra energy in recreation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Okay%, in a nook OF spot I need you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has thus far, power my hand. Fairly mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless a great probability he pops, simply hasn’t but.

Morgan (NY): Which prospects presently ranked beneath 75 have the very best probability to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: The youngsters in that vary

Jon Kay: Do chats depend as feedback? No actual query, I respect what you do. Hopefully you may stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, thanks for all the good work. After a powerful yr on the plate, why do you suppose Connor Norby will not be a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Both he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, in all probability.

Chris: How far was Jose Fleury out of your choose to click on subsequent yr ?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tremendous bizarre. This can be a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually wonderful changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t suppose it’ll work in a means that he’ll ever be on the Prime 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he ought to be a extremely misleading lengthy reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly like Yusmeiro Petit sort?

Roman: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your record? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t suppose he’s top15 in SD’s system

Eric A Longenhagen: Jagger will likely be on the One other 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout a complete begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ price him quite a lot of time. Wants to indicate he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch

Jon Kay: I like to consider your scores for FV as practical regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you decide on is the probably. Is there a means that you may add SD in your evalus as a means of measuring flooring and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is flooring and due to this fact I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of many former prospect writers on the web site tried to do a model of this and folks felt it was tremendous complicated to have flooring/seemingly/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is a little bit simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name

eye check appreciator: noticed an fascinating quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. nearly each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for useless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing modified final yr, large time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually appreciated him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. Might catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t suppose he’s all of the sudden a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Okay’s, however may have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.

Ryan: Might groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their expertise with the pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dunno if “worth much less” is strictly proper however “venture much less” in all probability could be.

Lasres: did you overlook Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is beneath MLB common, looks like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line people

Too Many Mooks: Eric, actually beloved the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through every year, groups lists, draft ranks, and so on. gracias

dave: How a lot of a unfavourable impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant improvement? What share of groups would select to have a short-season group, if allowed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed by brief season find yourself there. It gives fewer gamers alternative to develop however possibly doesn’t harm any particular person’s dev? I believe the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Share sensible…

Eric A Longenhagen: lol going via a group guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for an additional affiliate at this level? jeepers

Eric A Longenhagen: in all probability like half the groups? There are definnitely folks in baseball who nonetheless suppose there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as attainable to varsity baseball. I guess we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA

Luke: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (high 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run drawback?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sufficient that it limits his position, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him unhealthy.

wheelhouse: Do a particular org’s particular flaws ever impression your evaluation of a person prospect? I have a look at experiences of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to achieve his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not likely. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting if you happen to do it that means. It might really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both elevate or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I believe most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are good sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.

Oliver: If not for the notion that he was a powerful decide to attend faculty, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the blokes taken forward of him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I in all probability had hello ma little too excessive. He obtained $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s in all probability extra early/mid second spherical in a standard draft, was late 2 in a loaded one

NB: Eric and Tess, Nice work once more on Prospect Week!  I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I like getting a variety of opinions.  I really feel such as you guys are inclined to fee youthful worldwide signees greater than others whereas rating current MLB draftees a little bit decrease.  I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your Prime 100.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: All three have been picks to click on, we like them quite a bit. Head put actually sturdy contact knowledge on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m a little bit suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the best way his palms loop. Let’s see how he does in opposition to large velo. Wilken, the report. I need 1B/3B varieties to have nearer proximity to the massive league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The children’ ceilings are a lot larger than Wilken-types (Walcott, and so on) that regardless that they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to risk that they’re unicorn gamers forward of men like Wilken except they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA

Bob: You’re the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see holding him from being a high 100 sort? Lack of a defensive house? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?

Eric A Longenhagen: A whole lot of these questions are simply going to be answered with the subsequent piece. I don’t imagine in his hit software as a lot because the others, I assume. Additionally trying like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s wonderful however not *that* good.

Tim: Do you suppose Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t

Keith: Would Drew Thorpe be a strong comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you are feeling he might be elite with a velo bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. One other man whose title is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, may use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout choose as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.

Ralph: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nearer to fiftieth general

birds birds birds: Way back, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the largest soar for a minor leaguer to make.  Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Triple-A to large leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s in all probability Excessive-A to Double-A, sure.

Mike Cameron Maybin: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this yr? Clearly the facility’s there and he’s obtained time, however the Okay fee is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early experiences are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly bleak, imo. 64% contact fee is beneath any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Nonetheless has enormous juice, although.

unhappy Rangers fan: What’s your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a problem of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball continues to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless suppose Jack will likely be a good large leaguer however in all probability an RP at this level. That is his 40-man eval yr so we’d see TEX make a transfer in that regard

Your title: Love and respect all of the content material. Simply out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You will have Caminero as a RFer regardless that he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you will have Shaw as 2B regardless that he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely our projection, once I suppose it’s the correct name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I alter it

Jason: What occurred to the Simply Missed article?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra a “100 extra names to know” article in order you may think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.

Chris: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to indicate so as to be within the high 100 a yr from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: One other man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with enormous current uncooked, suppose the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him alter to fastballs round his palms.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Can science clarify why a number of projection methods (ZiPS and Steamer) suppose Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I’d be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I believe Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final yr.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you may truly do it totally) offers you means higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast sort stuff may make it easier to mannequin protection if you happen to had entry to that knowledge.

Eddie: When Spencer Jones was as previous as Jasson Dominguez is correct now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Really feel like there’s quite a lot of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson once they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say

Eric A Longenhagen: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in an excellent tight edit proper on high of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there’s. Doesn’t imply I believe he’s unhealthy, simply suppose the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so large that he wanted to be elevated

Eric A Longenhagen: Age variations and variations in projection typically go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ will not be.

Jordash: Is it simply me, or do you generally confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?

Eric A Longenhagen: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past check in highschool and my trainer informed me my priorities have been effed

Jordash: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the sturdy Orioles system. Do you suppose he might be an on a regular basis man by yr’s finish?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. May be out-talented by the others. Nonetheless a great participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Suppose J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.

Refugee: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you employ plate self-discipline and batted ball knowledge to paint your scouting? 2. The place are you getting that knowledge from? I can solely discover it publicly obtainable on the AAA stage.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re sourcing milb-wide knowledge from group contacts. I’m chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase knowledge is illuminating greater than in-person seems to be, batted ball/contact stuff serves to substantiate the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve neglected.

Scott: Seen Solometo will not be on high 100.  What do it’s worthwhile to see from him to crack record sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: Two or three extra ticks. I believe he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many impression starters who solely sit 91-92.

mason morris: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seemed so out of whack when he was wholesome final yr that there’s no means he hits except his sing modifications.

JH: Juan Brito was on final yr’s model of the Picks to Click on and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas exhibiting the identical mixture of contact, endurance, and a little bit pop that appeared to catch your eye final yr. Any perception as to why he missed this yr’s record? Has the scouting report backed up, or have been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his yr was extra like treading water?

Eric A Longenhagen: Protection is horrible

Ryan: How tough is it to vary your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it impression your command/management?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most likely simpler stated than performed and is dependent upon the individual. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the best way their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and modifications in stride path which have impression up the physique in such a means that alters arm and strategy angle. Discovering one thing the athlete can do persistently so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a vital piece of it.

Phil: Do you will have any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to suppose he might be a serious league starter quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s fee stats from 2023 recommend he ought to be throwing it extra, and we must always all be seeking to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this yr. They’ve two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.

Keith: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…a lot of guys, you simply should do different stuff like throw actually laborious.

Phils honk: Is Caba the very best defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he essentially the most proficient defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis

visitor: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Lengthy for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball in response to Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. However in response to stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thanks for the suggestions!

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion

Get Two, Brute?: Is there any explicit improvement difficulty with current Pittsburgh graduates you may level to relating to their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant facet, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a type of backfields that I’m solely on a few times a yr, and it’s robust for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater concept of what they’re doing with dev.

Mike S: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season?  Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final yr.

David: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was form of the outline of him going into the draft and resulting from damage he was barely in a position to play within the minors, was curious if there was something extra to may be aware about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?

Eric A Longenhagen: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish dimension/energy for an adolescent whenever you stand proper subsequent to him, swing continues to be work in progress, loopy energy/pace combo.

PJ: I used to be stunned to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on record. What about him fails to impress you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Simply not sufficient house on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and will likely be on the group record. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final yr, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), laborious mid-80s slider. Good prospect

romorr: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years high 100, are you able to give me your two greatest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: nailed it with Baumeister i feel

Eric A Longenhagen: you guys are good at this and principally guessing the names on this subsequent piece

jakefromboonesfarm: A lot of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final yr.  What separates them a lot in your eval?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have almost as a lot bodily expertise. Heston regarded cumbersome and powerful throughout ’22 AFL, regarded tremendous minimize and explosive in 2023, I assumed he hit a unique gear.

Jeremy: As a Phillies fan, how apprehensive ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a little bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the best way it strikes in a reasonably profound means. I believe it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.

Reggie: the dodgers appear to have actually performed nicely with their most up-to-date DSL group. Who do you want greatest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?

Eric A Longenhagen: nicely one in all them was on the highest 100 and one was a choose to click on

Kate: Shocked to not see Celesten within the “that is what they seem like” part of the picks to click on.  Is that merely a results of him simply not entering into video games final yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and regarded good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he seems to be sort, we nonetheless don’t really *know* something concerning the hit software with zero professional knowledge and due to how restricted in-person seems to be have been in 2023

Colton: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how typically do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Simply going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.

Eric A Longenhagen: by no means ever

Eric A Longenhagen: there are guys who i haven’t seen in individual however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie examine and have knowledge to formulate my very own opinion

Abimelec Ortiz: Ideas on the hitter with the very best title within the minors?  He crushed it final yr with Okay enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: you nailed it, simply suppose the efficiency is a little bit shy of high 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.

Daniel: How large of swing by way of worth is Austin Wells defensive place?

Eric A Longenhagen: huge. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final yr.

Gronch: How would you will have graded Brandon Belt’s energy developing? Clearly the entire package deal, with wonderful on-base, above common protection, and playable hit software was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for large energy

Eric A Longenhagen: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be a number of months shy of turning 22

Matt: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford?  Most individuals have him ranked however you didn’t.  

General, do you see the Phillies as having a company that’s trending in the correct path?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils record. Simply not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.

Sanford: Mets prospects are brief (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Only a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: top particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/flooring/ceiling that shorter prospects are inclined to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout top)

Eric A Longenhagen: good catch. I do suppose lever size is a trait groups care about and might need to do with stability of the hit software. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued resulting from lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and so on.

Kate: Was a little bit stunned to see Luis Morales soar into the Prime 100 so early.  Do you suppose he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Positively not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm pace, purely a ceiling-driven embody.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s essentially the most shocking {industry} suggestions you acquired in your high 101 this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: had too few inside jokes

ram: Has there ever been a disparity between your record and the ZIPs record that has induced you to return and reevaluate a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Danny sends me zips a number of days forward so i can double verify some guys. This yr it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt comfy shifting on from shortly from a high 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their group record

Pirates Hurdles: Interested in Termarr’s path, what do it’s worthwhile to see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and carry, can have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit software. Gonna Okay a ton.

Deputy: Who’s the subsequent unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?

Eric A Longenhagen: Take your choose of the DSL arms on their record, Arias, and so on.

RoadWarriorShaq: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that yr to start out making his means onto prospect lists.  .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection seems to be extra like a certainty than a risk.

Eric A Longenhagen: Def a group record man already. Prime 100? IDK, is Myles Straw figuring out gangbusters?

Walton Dilcox: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?

Eric A Longenhagen: May be a DH

Too Many Mooks: To what share of those questions may you simply reply “Learn the article, dingus”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The share has lowered since we began chatting

Eric A Longenhagen: truthfully this yr it’s in all probability solely like 10%

Spencer: Of the blokes on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s probably to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I gained’t depend Chourio, both (however it’s in all probability him)…

Eric A Longenhagen: saying Colt Keith can also be kinda dishonest…

Eric A Longenhagen: How about Jairo Iriarte?

J: That is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP position, I discover it more and more tough to gauge worth.  Simply by way of the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? If that’s the case, what has it modified?

Eric A Longenhagen: For certain. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth through innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ varieties who work in bulk aid, or who it’s worthwhile to get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging group state of affairs. Within the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft horny arms when the worth feels too good to move up, I’m extra on steady performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not

Eric A Longenhagen: nice query btw

Your Title: Have you ever heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser recognized outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. If that’s the case, would love any notes you will have

Eric A Longenhagen: After all, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead night time final yr, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.

Billy G: Along with all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth choose in a draft that had 5 “first general” varieties in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA accurately, they will’t choose high 10 subsequent yr no matter how unhealthy they’re. Even when I stick to them to Vegas, is there any hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, it’s a tragic state of affairs. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should it’s prefer to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the subsequent couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It might be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try and inspire eacother simply because.

prospect month: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove should be in these spots for the bat to play as a mean starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly not a mean starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth greatest man at LF/1B, that’s a extremely good participant) however undoubtedly higher than their alternate options.

Manny: You’re an enlargement group and you may steal all of the Yankees within the high 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmm BoSox

romorr: Talking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Okay% was fairly horrid as soon as he obtained to AA. What number of prospects Okay that a lot, that determine it out at that stage? Steep hill to climb, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me

camelcase: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Excessive energy potential with weak hit software at a premium defensive place. Is that this Joey Gallo at shortstop if the whole lot breaks proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Javy Baez if the whole lot breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road end result

sliptoad: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? folks on the astros subreddit appear to suppose that’s the longer term however primarily based in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that form of timeline

Eric A Longenhagen: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Tremendous gifted, although. Would count on a decrease burn. However hey, George Springer was additionally a proficient mess when he was drafted…

Eric A Longenhagen: so was derek fisher

Thom: Hello Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this yr’s record is shorter resulting from a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as short-term or do you count on the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little little bit of each. I believe this can be a down yr but in addition suppose the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.

John: Roki Sasaki would rank high 3 if he have been on the record?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2-4 vary, yeah

New UK Fan: Thanks for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?

Eric A Longenhagen: man that’s soooo robust. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too

Jake: What’s your prediction for the subsequent wave in analytics?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s already underway throughout quite a lot of the league, however: quantifying the best way the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion through graph, assessing flexibility through angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval software and to make MLB changes in-game

Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally surprise what a number of years of the mix will yield by way of the best way these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.

onomatopoeia: No query, simply wished to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot wonderful content material. I particularly love the Successfully Wild appearances. Thanks for all the laborious work!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it looks as if quite a lot of people take heed to EW

Kate: Not a high 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate experiences on Ricardo Cabrera.  Some had him as a legit plus runner final yr on the advanced and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he may have to maneuver to 1B finally.  Have you ever gotten any seems to be at him not too long ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous tough have a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Positively gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit knowledge is absolutely sturdy.

Billy G: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?

Eric A Longenhagen: OMG sure, nerd

Eric A Longenhagen: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup regarded fairly good within the fall, too. backend sort

Simon: Hello Eric, Wyatt Langford’s soar over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous fascinating to me. What did he present in these previous couple of months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Looks like the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day

Eric A Longenhagen: Turning on the ball with energy means higher than simply about every other high prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely cleansing out velo round his palms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat

Walton Dilcox: Can Rodney Inexperienced play CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: That is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Robust profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the facility, although.

Snowbird: I ponder your ideas on Welbyn Francisca?  You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went nicely, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any probability he pops?

romorr: I don’t actually suppose Chayce McDermott has performed sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Nonetheless a MIRP/SIRP for  you? Or do you suppose there’s “extra” that would get him a spot within the rotation.

Eric A Longenhagen: of the blokes with aid threat in that 45 FV space he’s the one I believe has the very best probability to iron issues out. he’s so free and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an impression arm of some form.

h8r: Are dodgers prospects essentially the most overrated (industry-wide) resulting from perceived developmental benefits within the org?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do suppose the horny orgs get a bump, usually

Misplaced A’s Fan: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact fee and premium EV final season. However his future hit software grade is just a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get unhealthy data on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre trying, and i feel the chase will finally impression his hit software

Will: Did you contemplate together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click on for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a particular cause you’ve soured on him because the 2023 draft? Or was he neglected/there simply wasn’t sufficient house to say him in that article?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i assumed, complete lack of ability to drag the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to choose a cause that’d be it

Walton Dilcox: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? Faculty and HS esp up high…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks as if a banner draft

Eric A Longenhagen: they kicked ass

j: what goes on into the numerous variations, once they occur, between dash pace (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we establish candidates to outperform run grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t suppose dash pace is an effective way to eval pace. Or fairly, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time for my part. Dash pace measures pace of their quickest one-second window of working. Residence-to-first instances incorporate acceleration and lengthy pace, in addition to a measure of the occasion through which pace makes the largest distinction (out vs secure at 1B).

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: How typically do you get an opportunity to look at Worldwide or Jap League video games in individual? Do you will have video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll go house to PA for per week or two each summer season and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not excellent, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically completely different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unimaginable software

Narvain: Nice work, Eric!  In your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the perfect body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis.  What’s the ultimate physique dimension for a SP these days?  Has it modified in any respect?

Eric A Longenhagen: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering right down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, steadiness within the decrease physique, free arm motion

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe groups are extra open to brief king pitchers due to strategy angle concerns

TomBruno23: What/Who’re you most trying ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the pretend video games get going?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe each Central divisions might be quite a lot of enjoyable.

Jonny: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB sort?  Or is his offense not ample?

Eric A Longenhagen: (cringes) regarded substandard throughout the board final yr, my dude

Hal: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve grow to be considerably greater or decrease on during the last a number of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flawed nook bats when the facility is a 70 or higher

Bob: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 battle by finish of group management. is that not a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50

Parv: I’ve seen a number of feedback not too long ago (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is general way more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially resulting from all of this newly obtainable knowledge within the minors and faculty. What’s your tackle that? Have you learnt anybody who’s tried to research this by time to see if we’re figuring out the correct prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh we’re means higher at this now, each by expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs price evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval through my How’s My Driving piece final week

Eric A Longenhagen: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly

Colton: The place would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 close to Kjerstad

Ryan: What can we count on to see from Justin Campbell this yr? Thanks to your time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody with CLE informed me he’s good to go however I don’t know how he’ll look

Andrew: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter?  Looks like some guys (e.g., Dalton Dashing has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final yr at Louisville) have this as a “ability” to some extent, however it’s in all probability much less repeatable than BB ability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his palms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his recreation however it’s created by a deficiency not a ability.

Scurvy: I want you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for the way Daniel Espino’s profession will end up.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably? Brendan McKay’s buddy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I got here house giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was a few of the greatest stuff i’ve ever seen in individual, ever ever. Shoulders, man.

Will: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any cause to vary that impression?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP, imo

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington ought to give him each opp to start out, why not?

DH: I used to be a bit stunned to not see Joey Loperfido within the high 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?

Eric A Longenhagen: you will have it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU record final yr and will likely be in an analogous spot as a march via group lists

Nassim Nunez: Whats my ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: slick utility man

Contented O: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce package deal for Stop? I believe if they will get it performed with out shifting Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!

Eric A Longenhagen: not for me, bro.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not even shut

Kate: How is the final article coming at this time completely different from the picks to click on article precisely?  Appears like at this time’s could embody guys who you don’t count on to rise, however are simply exterior the highest 100 in the mean time?  Possibly contains guys anticipated to graduate as nicely?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra about guys you need to learn about proper now for a story cause. It’s not titled nicely within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂

Tempe, AZ: Quick access to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks as if an enormous plus for residing right here.  How does this impression your strategy of evaluating prospects? Does it can help you get extra and higher seems to be at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you are feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you would possibly solely see on video or 1-2 per yr (like those that prepare in Florida)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure to all, that is my full time job and I’m at a number of hundred video games a yr

Travis: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Noticed him quite a bit all through his newbie profession and he all the time comped to a Matt Strahm sort for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing an expert inning but.

Eric A Longenhagen: No one did instructs in FL apart from TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, free/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…fascinating dev faculty arm

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Because of the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please contemplate a subscription to the location and thanks for all of your form phrases.