DJ Stewart Is Strolling Right here

I wish to amuse myself by imagining a state of affairs wherein Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane has to switch a departing Juan Soto. Now, if Moneyball got here out within the 2020s, Soto would’ve been traded years in the past and Jonah Hill’s Peter Model could be heroically determining the right way to procure a block of taxpayer-funded stadium-adjacent condos for Steve, the cheapskate proprietor. However it’s my creativeness, so it doesn’t need to be that bleak.

It is a sort of reverse-Six Million Greenback Man state of affairs: “We need to rebuild him; we don’t have the cash.” Soto doesn’t present any particular worth within the area or on the bases; even the most affordable staff within the league can discover an unremarkable defensive nook outfielder who steals 10 bases a yr. The tough factor about discovering a poor man’s Soto is changing his means to get on base.

Guys who run a .400 OBP, or a stroll fee within the excessive teenagers, are uncommon however not distinctive. Particularly in the event you exclude these high-OBP guys who additionally bat close to .300 and have 30-plus dwelling run energy, the instruments that worth the imaginary A’s out of Soto’s market. (Or Bryce Harper’s or Aaron Decide’s or Kyle Tucker’s.)

For a few yr now, my reply to the query of how one would go about Hatteberging Soto’s Giambi has been LaMonte Wade Jr., the Giants’ first baseman. Wade leads all of baseball with a 21.4 BB%; having drawn solely a single intentional stroll this season, Wade’s unintentional stroll fee is lower than two factors beneath Barry Bonds’ unintentional stroll fee in 2001 and 2004. (Anybody who walks that a lot in a metropolis as hilly as San Francisco will need to have calf muscle tissue the dimensions of rugby balls.)

Wade’s has solely homered twice in 2024 as of this writing, and his ISO is simply .111, but when he may hit for energy he’d be making $30 million a yr too.

Let’s decrease the plate look threshold somewhat, to 90. No. 2 on the stroll fee listing is DJ Stewart, who in line with Baseball Savant additionally has the bottom chase fee within the league. Stewart was a late first-round choose by the Orioles in 2015 out of Florida State, however by no means caught on with Baltimore even because the staff languished within the 100-loss zone.

Stewart emerged as a part-time participant with the Mets final yr, and on this rebuilding yr the 30-year-old has staked a declare to the lengthy facet of a DH platoon. Stewart is simply hitting .205, however his stroll fee, together with 4 dwelling runs in 69 at-bats, has introduced his wRC+ all the way in which as much as 141.

Even in 1 / 4 of a season as a platoon participant, this can be a fairly exceptional efficiency. Stewart was good when he performed final yr (.244/.333/.506 in 58 video games) however he’s doubled his stroll fee and lower his strikeout fee by a 3rd. His chase fee — 25.8% final yr and near 30% for his profession heading into this season — has fallen to 14.0%.

So earlier than the Mets-Phillies recreation on Wednesday evening, I requested Stewart what changes he’d made to deliver all this about, to develop into probably the most selective hitter in baseball.

Stewart shrugged.

“I’ve at all times had an excellent eye,” he says. “I simply really feel good with my swing proper now, and I’m actually zoning in on the place I need the ball to be. And in the event that they’re not throwing it there, then I’m not swinging at it.”

Stewart’s proper — he has at all times had an excellent eye. His school coach, the late Mike Martin, was well-known for growing offenses that have been completely depressing to pitch towards; Martin’s groups have been often among the many nationwide leaders in walks and OBP, and in consequence his Seminoles have been good for 40 wins a yr like clockwork. Stewart was Florida State’s standout hitter throughout his time in Tallahassee, and in his draft yr — in an atmosphere pretty hostile to offense — he posted an OBP of a fair .500.

“It’s undoubtedly one thing that’s preached at Florida State, to get on base any manner you may, whether or not that’s drawing walks or getting hit by pitches,” Stewart says. “However at this degree, you need to get on base, however you need to do harm as properly.”

Stewart can do harm when he makes contact, however could be very picky about “his pitch.” Principally, something up within the zone is not any good. He’s nonetheless on the lookout for his first hit this yr within the prime third of the strike zone. Something within the backside third of the zone is okay, however not nice. However he demolishes pitches within the center third.

On pitches middle-middle, particularly, Stewart is a menace. Like, everybody does harm on pitches over the center of the plate, however even by that normal Stewart has been superior this yr. And he is aware of it. He’s seen 27 pitches middle-middle, swung 23 instances, and missed as soon as. Listed here are his numbers on these pitches, together with how they evaluate to hitters throughout the league.

Nonetheless, getting actually nothing out of the highest third of the strike zone isn’t nice, and doubtless explains why Stewart is strolling 20% of the time however is simply hitting .205.

However one of many large breakthroughs in baseball evaluation up to now yr has been formalizing the concept of selective aggression: swinging at pitches you are able to do harm on and spitting on the others.

“I’m not up there attempting to attract a stroll, that’s for certain,” Stewart says. “I’m attempting to do harm in my zone. And in the event that they miss [my zone]? Take it and stay with the outcomes.”

So with that in thoughts, right here’s Stewart’s swing fee by pitch location.

He’s nonetheless swinging at pitches that beat him up within the zone, however outdoors the zone? Stewart simply isn’t . These squares are bluer than Cookie Monster’s bottom.

Additionally, are you curious how a man with a Nineteenth-percentile whiff fee ended up with a 57th-percentile Okay%? I certain as heck was. Seems that with two strikes, Stewart is simply swinging at 3.2% of pitches outdoors the zone. That’s tied for the third-lowest swing fee among the many 329 hitters who’ve seen 250 or extra pitches this season. In order that in all probability helps.

And since Stewart has exhibited such unusually good command of the strike zone, he’s performed his manner into a daily position, beginning and taking part in the next share of his staff’s video games than in any pervious season. Though he’s solely began somewhat over half the Mets’ video games, Stewart says he’s very pleased with the communication he’s gotten from supervisor Carlos Mendoza and the Mets teaching workers.

“Yearly has a studying curve,” he says. “It’s somewhat bit totally different. However I believe our supervisor does an excellent job of speaking with us — conditions [we might play and] who we would face if we’re not beginning.”

On Sunday, Stewart received his second profession begin in an unfamiliar position: Batting leadoff. With Brandon Nimmo nursing facet soreness, Mendoza put Stewart — who’s second to Nimmo on the staff in walks — on the prime of the lineup.

With the Mets taking part in the Phillies — a staff that leads off its lineup with a hitter who batted .197 with 47 dwelling runs and led the league in strikeouts in 2023 — I requested Stewart about it. As a stocky left-handed hitter who hits from a crouch, the extra Stewart walks the extra he begins to resemble a Kirkland Signature Kyle Schwarber.

Stewart replied that he’d batted first rising up, so he was snug at that spot even when he’s been extra of a middle-of-the-order man within the execs. He additionally took pains to emphasize that “we now have an excellent leadoff batter.”

However: “I don’t care the place I hit. It doesn’t matter to me.”

When it comes to lineup place, that may be true. However “the place” — understanding the place to swing and the place to take — has been the important thing to Stewart’s season.