| 2:01 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
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| 2:01 |
: Let’s simply dive proper in
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| 2:02 |
: What main change to baseball may have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and many others)?
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| 2:02 |
: Variety of fielders, perhaps? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, in fact
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| 2:02 |
: Who would you slightly guess on panning out? A prospect who must decrease his Ok fee by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB fee by 5-10%?
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| 2:03 |
: It is determined by different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d positively desire the man who hits too many grounders. Research after examine reveals that hitters who’re putting out a ton within the low minors simply can’t play on the main league stage generally
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| 2:03 |
: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout fee. However truthfully, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ is determined by what stage all else is equal at
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| 2:03 |
: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “Now we have an possession group able to pay billions for an growth staff AND the town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?
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| 2:03 |
: surprisingly, I don’t assume so
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| 2:04 |
: I simply assume the journey could be too onerous
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| 2:05 |
: They clearly perceive how robust it’s the manner they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play quick sequence. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each sequence could possibly be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some kind
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| 2:05 |
: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about really placing a staff there completely
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| 2:05 |
: Appears protected to imagine the Phillies are a playoff staff this yr. What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff recreation vs a proper handed pitcher?
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| 2:06 |
: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl
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| 2:07 |
: I can’t think about Castellanos within the subject given how he’s taking part in
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| 2:07 |
: I do know that they’re speaking about taking part in Sosa within the outfield too at instances, so perhaps you may have him over Dahl or Rojas?
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| 2:08 |
: What do you assume is inflicting the Braves’ YOY dwelling run decline? Their barrel fee/onerous hit remains to be glorious however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this stage out or is there one thing systemic?
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| 2:08 |
: I believe a few of it’s gonna stage out, although a few of it’s that they have been unsustainably scorching final yr
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| 2:08 |
: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the yr
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| 2:08 |
: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I believe we overstate the affect just a few subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who bought however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have an even bigger affect than particular person gamers.
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| 2:09 |
: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:
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| 2:09 |
: However I appeared into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, and so they carry out worse than you’d count on based mostly on a Depth Charts rendering of their talent stage
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| 2:10 |
: How would you assume a Gunnar extension would examine to Witt’s or Riley’s?
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| 2:10 |
: I believe it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ executed a deep dive to get extra exact than that
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| 2:10 |
: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and many others.–may this be probably the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?
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| 2:11 |
: Nicely, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even in case you don’t), sure
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| 2:11 |
: notably Robert, Bichette, Bregman
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| 2:11 |
: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s an even bigger star than anybody listed her
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| 2:11 |
: but when all these guys went, positive
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| 2:11 |
: I do assume that the Jays are gonna have so much to say about how the commerce deadline goes
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| 2:12 |
: and the White Sox perhaps too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a bundle larger than what WAS bought for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which in my view makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect
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| 2:12 |
: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds glorious
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| 2:13 |
: Then again…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23
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| 2:13 |
: So it’s positively a longshot {that a} staff would supply that a lot
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| 2:13 |
: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis position?
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| 2:14 |
: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis position is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’
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| 2:15 |
: in case you take a look at his previous couple of weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one folks getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor
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| 2:15 |
: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan
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| 2:16 |
: it’s simply break up far and wide
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| 2:16 |
: A couple of chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you take pleasure in watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched loads of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, in case you may watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it have been a tennis match, that means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics could be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.
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| 2:16 |
: Oh man, what a match yesterday
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| 2:16 |
: I missed the ladies’s closing, nevertheless it seems that was positive b/c Swiatek is simply too good
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| 2:16 |
: however the males’s closing was nice
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| 2:17 |
: deGrom is half of mine for positive
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| 2:17 |
: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil
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| 2:17 |
: I by no means bought to see Willie Mays play so he’s most likely my choose although
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| 2:17 |
: or perhaps you do one per period
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| 2:17 |
: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd
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| 2:17 |
: Am I on a scorching streak or have I figured some issues out?
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| 2:17 |
: por que no los dos?
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| 2:18 |
: I’m without end gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary faculty baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the very best hitter in a era (sure, my park components might need been off)
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| 2:20 |
: I believe that he’s on an unsustainable contact scorching streak, however that his strategy of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice
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| 2:20 |
: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase fee a bit, which makes me assume a tailwind in walks and favorable counts may offset a babip slide
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| 2:20 |
: Implausible enhancements to the participant pages – cross alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!
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| 2:20 |
: I’ve allow them to know
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| 2:21 |
: and yeah it’s nice!
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| 2:21 |
: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!
Nicely, aside from Aaron Choose… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that hunch. |
| 2:21 |
: Looks like groups which can be profitable typically stick to replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m considering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies as an illustration, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to profitable groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal acquire in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?
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| 2:21 |
: This can be a actually onerous query
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| 2:22 |
: I believe that generally groups would most likely be higher off in the event that they moved on quicker than they really do, however much less shortly than followers assume they need to
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| 2:22 |
: The rationale for that’s {that a} false constructive right here hurts extra
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| 2:22 |
: like, transferring somebody after they weren’t really cooked
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| 2:22 |
: Is Mike Elias the very best GM in MLB? If not, who’s?
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| 2:22 |
: I’ve to present it to Alex Anthopoulos
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| 2:23 |
: I imply, full respect to Elias
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| 2:23 |
: I’ve written a TON about O’s determination making up to now two years becuase they’ve had loads of fascinating selections
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| 2:23 |
: and whereas Elias and co most likely began out as being a bit too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably
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| 2:23 |
: clearly, their dev/acquisition staff is unbelievable as effectively
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| 2:24 |
: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. Nevertheless it’s simply onerous to knock what the Braves hold doing
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| 2:24 |
: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?
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| 2:24 |
: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time
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| 2:24 |
: Tatis Jr. has been wanting higher these days…do you assume he ever will get again to 2021 type?
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| 2:24 |
: I believe it’s positively doable
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| 2:24 |
: the man is only a spectacular athlete
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| 2:25 |
: i don’t assume he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t assume anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation
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| 2:25 |
: however by way of being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and glorious protection/baserunning to go together with it, sure
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| 2:25 |
: Is it real looking to presume that Alonso could be satisfactory in a nook OF and due to this fact have much more TV to contenders?
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| 2:25 |
: I hate to say it, however no
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| 2:26 |
: I don’t purchase that he may deal with a nook outfield spot
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| 2:26 |
: a)it’d must be left, b)I nonetheless assume it’d be Hoskins-esque
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| 2:26 |
: What do you assume has been the very best free agent contract of greater than 100 million? Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m positive I’m forgetting some good candidates.
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| 2:27 |
: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is unquestionably within the operating. A Rod and Harper are good ones
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| 2:27 |
: I’m wanting by means of a listing proper now
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| 2:28 |
: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer most likely will get my vote for the general finest
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| 2:28 |
: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.
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| 2:29 |
:
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| 2:29 |
: SHOTA. IMANAGA.
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| 2:29 |
: If gamers underneath 5’7″ bought an additional strike, would Altuve be the very best participant in baseball?
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| 2:29 |
: Are hitters who crush off velocity and breaking balls gonna develop into extra helpful because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?
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| 2:29 |
: A bit. However I believe pitchers can even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, mainly simply specialize extra
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| 2:29 |
: so their predominant edge might be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less
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| 2:29 |
: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?
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| 2:30 |
: I believe the O’s will find yourself profitable it, really, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters
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| 2:30 |
: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the very best hitter in a era out of faculty as effectively haha
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| 2:30 |
: I imply his stats have been so outrageous that even if you alter for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they have been nonetheless otherworldly
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| 2:30 |
: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.
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| 2:30 |
: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t need to watch this
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| 2:30 |
: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a yr, together with all his time in school. Would that meaningfully cut back his commerce worth for a contender seeking to purchase him this yr?
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| 2:32 |
: I believe my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….
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| 2:32 |
: Re: finest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally wanting good thus far.
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| 2:32 |
: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?
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| 2:32 |
: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat
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| 2:32 |
: boy, I really don’t know if I can repair that
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| 2:32 |
: So, Ben… are you continue to apprehensive about Jose Ramirez?
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| 2:33 |
: as a substitute, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel
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| 2:34 |
: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the very best probability to dethrone one in all them?
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| 2:35 |
: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?
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| 2:35 |
: somebody may get scorching within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t title
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| 2:35 |
: So Aaron Choose…. how is that this attainable? After 2022 I believe all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+) once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this stage of hitter? Is he the very best since Bonds?
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| 2:35 |
: So, I’m doing a undertaking for tomorrow the place I graph completely different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle
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| 2:35 |
: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and many others.
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| 2:35 |
: Choose’s graph is simply ludicrous
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| 2:36 |
: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air
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| 2:36 |
: what a monswer
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| 2:36 |
: Do you assume Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 recreation energy grade? He’s solely 22 nevertheless it simply looks as if he can by no means raise the ball.
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| 2:37 |
: nah, I don’t. I do actually assume he has 80 uncooked although
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| 2:37 |
: I’ve been enthusiastic about your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to count on a lot from them. I imply I’m positive there are at all times counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 reveals that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise
Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs bought the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was taking part in effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had loads of good prospects on the time) Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski beneath the caliber of prospects you have been contemplating? Additionally most likely price noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so could dissuade comparable conduct from different groups |
| 2:38 |
: Wesneski was positively beneath the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time
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| 2:38 |
: I’m wanting over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction
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| 2:38 |
: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system
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| 2:39 |
: so like, perhaps I’m utilizing the unsuitable prospect grades? However I believe that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who all of a sudden gained velo after being drafted
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| 2:39 |
: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?
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| 2:39 |
: I don’t assume so
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| 2:39 |
: When are you planning on being good in case you hold buying and selling your good gamers?
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| 2:39 |
: if the jays find yourself really buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Attempting to determine who in rivalry wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?
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| 2:40 |
: I positively assume that they’re taking part in him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t assume a giant deal is gonna get executed, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that helpful on the deadline
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| 2:40 |
: so there’s this bizarre state of affairs the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ could be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers
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| 2:41 |
: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the stage he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a kind of lifetime achievement award.
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| 2:41 |
: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis
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| 2:41 |
: it’s loopy that he by no means received it
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| 2:41 |
: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?
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| 2:42 |
: Simply that loads of these guys haven’t appeared practically as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an ideal job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I believe they bought Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, kind of
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| 2:42 |
: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears
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| 2:42 |
: they did the identical for Soto
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| 2:43 |
: and I believe in loads of these instances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d count on, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’
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| 2:43 |
: Ben, how outdated is the pre recreation win likelihood mannequin as proven within the Stay Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to boost predictions?
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| 2:44 |
: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s positively easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based mostly on the posted recreation lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)
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| 2:44 |
: Wheeler must be proper behind Scherzer on the very best free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his title talked about
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| 2:44 |
: A couple of different folks pointed him out, and yeah
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| 2:44 |
: he positively counts
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| 2:44 |
: If Scherzer is the very best free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.
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| 2:45 |
: Oh, absolutely not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly bought loads of insurance coverage funds again
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| 2:45 |
: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump? Each time he seems like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth. The protection has been inconsistent. What’s your tackle his future?
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| 2:45 |
: man…. I nonetheless assume he’ll
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| 2:45 |
: regardless of having been unsuitable about this particular factor many instances
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| 2:45 |
: I completely imagine in Seiya
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| 2:46 |
: and he appeared like he figured all of it out on the finish of final yr, after which nope
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| 2:46 |
: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that
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| 2:46 |
: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have positively been a constant downside
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| 2:46 |
: I believe he’s what he’s at this level, mainly
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| 2:46 |
: leaguewide OPS common is beneath 700….time to panic or not but?
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| 2:46 |
: Yeah I’m panicking
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| 2:46 |
: baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs
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| 2:47 |
: I assumed the Nats have been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract as a consequence of his harm historical past
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| 2:47 |
: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past
|
| 2:47 |
: effectively that makes it worse!
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| 2:48 |
: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I believe the PA Forecasting could possibly be probably very flawed. The method of accounting for the appropriate variety of PA’s awarded to every staff based mostly upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting staff goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single recreation in opposition to a beneath common pitching staff than their season common), these items trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any concept you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?
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| 2:48 |
: Let’s simply say that’s low on our record, the location has had a ton of cool enhancements in recent times however I believe revamping our recreation odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them and so they do alright) so as to add a bit is just not highest precedence
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| 2:48 |
: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a generally helper
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| 2:48 |
: however I’d guess there are various issues we’d repair earlier than that
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| 2:49 |
: Unironically I need MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we have been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a very enjoyable time for baseball
|
| 2:49 |
: Is there a abstract someplace on the location of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch data/SIS)?
|
| 2:49 |
: can there be a abstract of the completely different sources of plate disciple metrics
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| 2:49 |
: There isn’t however I can provide you one right here
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| 2:49 |
: they measure the strike zone barely in another way
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| 2:49 |
: that’s the entire completely different
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| 2:50 |
: % probability Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are almost definitely to get him?
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| 2:50 |
: I simply have it very low
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| 2:50 |
: thanks for answering my butchered query. Is yet another correct? SIS zone appears waaaay completely different
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| 2:50 |
: I dunno, truthfully! I identical to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c generally I’m pulling information immediately from Savant
|
| 2:50 |
: i’ve seen a conspiracy principle that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far
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| 2:51 |
: I may completely see that
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| 2:52 |
: Concerning the low league large OPS, what are your most popular approaches/options on the best way to improve it?
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| 2:53 |
: I need extra energetic baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier recreation
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| 2:53 |
: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats bought little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)
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| 2:53 |
: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and many others) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re meant to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re really generally much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks as if an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would inform you would really occurred, a very dangerous mannequin would don’t have any foundation in actuality). That looks as if loads of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re really helpful. I additionally take excessive difficulty with some fee stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as a substitute of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who minimize their Ok% for sometimes weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA
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| 2:54 |
: Dan did one thing on this
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| 2:54 |
: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All have been good!
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| 2:54 |
: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday
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| 2:54 |
: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad and so they have been abysmal
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| 2:54 |
: “baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs”: And it grew to become private for me (observe: that is what Jordan really mentioned)
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| 2:54 |
:
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| 2:55 |
: alright, I’m performing some caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll discuss to you once more subsequent week
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He could be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.