The 40-41 Rays are one in every of many key groups to control because the commerce deadline attracts close to. Whereas they’re buried within the American League East and unlikely to shut their present 10.5-game deficit, they’re additionally solely 4 video games out of the ultimate American League Wild Card spot. On the identical time, Tampa Bay may quickly discover itself with a rising variety of massive league starters — greater than it has room to plug into its rotation.
Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will probably be able to rejoin the rotation earlier than lengthy; each pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgical procedure — Baz’s carried out in late 2022 and Springs’ carried out early final season. Baz already accomplished a minor league rehab task and has continued build up in Triple-A.
As soon as thought to be maybe the highest pitching prospect within the sport, the 25-year-old Baz obtained out to a tough begin throughout his rehab stint however has now rattled off 5 begins with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 Okay/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for a number of weeks as nicely however has but to pitch greater than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Previous to his Tommy John process, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the newest in a protracted line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.
Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a commerce that despatched catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. On the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial massive league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout charge and 6.3% stroll charge in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — however Springs sadly went below the knife simply three begins into the 2023 marketing campaign.
With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an inside brace process slightly below one yr in the past — the Rays certainly have a mounting inventory of arms. The Athletic trio notes of their report that of the workforce’s present starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be accessible in trades. Each pitchers are of their second yr of arbitration eligibility and managed via the 2026 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired final summer time in a commerce sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is incomes $4.9MM this yr. Littell, yet one more product of the Rays’ virtually comical hidden-gem manufacturing unit (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is incomes simply $1.8MM.
Of the 2, Littell is having fun with the stronger season but in addition has the shorter observe document. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly common 22% strikeout charge towards an distinctive 4.3% stroll charge. For the reason that Rays took the previous starter-turned-reliever and plugged him again right into a rotation function final July, he’s given them 27 begins with a 3.98 earned run common, 20.2% strikeout charge and much more spectacular 3.6% stroll charge. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a chunk for MLBTR Entrance Workplace subscribers.)
Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone because the workforce had hoped when buying him final yr. He’s posted sturdy strikeout and stroll charges alike, however his sharp Okay-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up house runs. The 29-year-old righty has began 26 video games for Tampa Bay courting to final summer time’s commerce however logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Regardless of upping his strikeout charge from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and sustaining his terrific command (6.1% stroll charge in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 along with his former membership to five.26 along with his present one. After yielding 1.19 homers per 9 frames in 5 seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 massive flies per 9 since heading to St. Petersburg.
There hasn’t been a significant change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing extra sliders this yr on the costly of his cutter, but it surely’s not an amazing change in utilization charges and the righty continues to be utilizing the identical mix of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as nicely.
Regardless of Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no scarcity of groups fascinated with including him and/or Littell to their workers for the subsequent season and a half. Each arms are inexpensive — significantly for groups with CBT issues — and there established rotation arms usually will probably be briefly provide. That’s all of the extra true given latest accidents to commerce candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm scarcity may place the Rays to deal from their present rotation after which change whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s getting back from damage.
Darragh McDonald and I mentioned this risk with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, additionally pertaining to the opportunity of the Rays drawing curiosity in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably extra essential to the workforce’s workers than both Civale or Littell, however he’s additionally the costliest starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free company previous to the 2023 season. It’s a closely backloaded pact that may pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty quantity by the Rays’ sometimes thrifty requirements. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and in a position to be part of younger arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in subsequent yr’s rotation, the at all times cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to pay attention on Eflin whereas pondering the same gamut to the Littell/Civale situation specified by The Athletic’s report.
It bears emphasizing that even when the Rays find yourself promoting — or, as they typically have previously, working on each the “purchase” and “promote” aspect of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the entrance workplace is not fascinated with a large-scale rebuild. Even when the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will probably be to reload and take intention and contending once more in 2025. Given the wealth of younger and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that retains churning out attention-grabbing younger hitters, the Rays possible really feel they’ve the muse of a contending membership largely in place.
As is so typically the case this time of yr, the Rays seem positioned as one of many groups who will in some ways dictate a good bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether or not they rattle off a number of wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card place, keep the established order as a bubble workforce or drop additional down the standings, their slate of rehabbing high quality arms provides them the flexibleness to buy present massive league arms — be it for different massive leaguers in areas of want or near-MLB prospects who may also help in 2025.