You may add two extra stars to the sport’s unlucky tally of injured gamers, as Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte have been each added to the 10-day injured record on Monday. Riley, who has been certainly one of Atlanta’s hottest hitters after an ice-cold begin to the 2024 season, was faraway from Sunday’s recreation towards the Angels after a 97-mph Jack Kochanowicz sinker went very excessive and really inside, connecting together with his wrist. Marte’s harm seems much less severe than Riley’s, however a re-aggravated sprained ankle has put him on the shelf at a key second in Arizona’s playoff run.
Once I ran the numbers on baseball’s most injured groups final week, Atlanta got here out second when it comes to essentially the most misplaced potential worth, “overwhelmed” by solely the Dodgers. Riley, who has gotten MVP votes in every of the final three seasons, has had a little bit of a down yr, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and a couple of.4 WAR, which represents his weakest efficiency since earlier than his 2021 breakout. However even when he hasn’t had a very sterling season general, he’s develop into crucial currently, particularly because the accidents have piled up and the remainder of the workforce’s offense has swooned. Riley’s seasonal line was as little as .220/.288/.330 again in mid-June; he’d gone greater than a month with out a homer and had solely hit three on the season. Since June 13, nonetheless, Riley has led Atlanta’s lineup in WAR and hit 16 round-trippers:
Braves Hitters Since June 13
Monday’s MRI, which revealed a damaged wrist, places Riley out of motion for 6-8 weeks, that means that except the Braves go deep into the playoffs, his 2024 season might be over. Whereas there’s by no means an excellent time to lose a middle-of-the-order hitter, Riley’s loss comes at a very awkward level for the Braves, as their seven video games towards the division-leading Phillies over the following week-and-a-half doubtless symbolize their final, finest probability to grab the NL East, long-shot although it could be. The Braves appear to have arrested their fall within the standings, profitable 5 of their final seven, however they’re nonetheless barely clinging to the final Wild Card spot, as they’re just one 1/2 video games forward of the Mets and three 1/2 in entrance of the Giants.
The silver lining — or arguably a uninteresting grey one — is that Gio Urshela was all of the sudden obtainable in free company after being launched by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday; the Braves signed him to a serious league deal earlier as we speak. The issue, after all, is that the one motive Urshela was obtainable is that he’s having such a poor season that no person needed to danger selecting up the pro-rated {dollars} remaining on his one-year, $1.5 million contract. Urshela had a strong little peak, placing up a 118 wRC+ and eight.1 WAR for the Yankees and Twins from 2019 to 2022, however after a fractured pelvis in 2023 and a depressing .243/.286/.333 line this yr, he seems to be on the downslope of his profession.
Whereas I nonetheless assume Nacho Alvarez Jr. would have been the perfect substitute regardless of his weak debut stint, Atlanta seems to need to play it safer, choosing the veteran Urshela over Luke Williams and perhaps a little bit of Whit Merrifield if Ozzie Albies returns in September. With out the Riley harm, ZiPS projected a 73% probability of the Braves holding off the Mets and Giants and making the playoffs; changing Riley with Urshela drops that chance to 68%, whereas enjoying principally Williams at third would trigger it to dip a little bit additional to 67%. Regardless of Urshela solely being projected at substitute stage or a hair above, paying $400,000 for 1% of a playoff spot is definitely an inexpensive worth. To make room for Urshela on the 40-man roster, A.J. Minter, who’s out with hip surgical procedure, was moved to the 60-day IL. Nevertheless, that doesn’t change the workforce’s projection, as I had already baked within the assumption that, at finest, Minter was very prone to solely get a number of outings within the season’s ultimate days.
As I discussed above, Ketel Marte’s harm is much much less severe than Riley’s. Marte initially sprained his ankle on August 10 after a Garrett Stubbs slide into second base. The Diamondbacks didn’t place him on the IL, opting to make use of him fastidiously within the final week, with a pair late-inning appearances and a recreation at DH. They’re taking no possibilities this time, although, and the hope is that he’ll be capable to make a fast return after taking a while to recuperate.
As with Riley’s harm, Marte’s comes at a key level within the season for his workforce. After treading water earlier this season, the Diamondbacks have been certainly one of baseball’s hottest groups, and together with the Padres, they’ve truly made the Dodgers really feel at the very least mildly uncomfortable on the high of the NL West. Earlier than the harm, Marte had been on the most well liked run of his profession, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers for the reason that begin of June. His 3.9 WAR over that timeframe ranked behind solely Francisco Lindor’s 4.2 WAR amongst NL hitters. Mixed with Arizona’s surge, Marte was placing collectively an inexpensive MVP case. Assuming he solely requires a minimal keep on the IL, the numerous downgrade to Kevin Newman doesn’t symbolize a severe hit to the Snakes’ playoff hopes; ZiPS has them at 90% odds to make the playoffs, solely a 0.5% drop from their projection with out the harm. Within the best-case situation, the Diamondbacks would get Marte again simply in time for a key four-game sequence towards the Dodgers subsequent week, their final alternative to straight inflict punishment on their division rival within the standings.
The accidents to Riley and Marte don’t doom their groups to 2024 oblivion, however they do make their respective workforce’s challenges this yr a bit extra daunting. However hey, no person mentioned it could be straightforward.