Crimson Sox Lengthen Defensive Phenom Ceddanne Rafaela

A month after signing beginning pitcher Brayan Bello to a six-year extension, the Boston Crimson Sox are at it once more, this time extending rookie middle fielder Ceddanne Rafaela on an eight-year deal value $50 million. If Rafaela sticks within the majors lengthy sufficient this season to earn a 12 months of service time, this extension will delay his free agent eligibility for 2 years; both approach, he’ll be paid a assured wage by the 2031 season.

How you are feeling about Rafaela comes down to only what you concentrate on his protection. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin rated Rafaela as the one prospect on THE BOARD final 12 months with a 70 current worth for protection and the one one with a future worth of 80. They have been hardly alone of their reward for his glove, both, as different shops corresponding to Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline additionally gave complimentary evaluations to his leathercraft.

Whereas prospect writers have often missed on the eventual defensive efficiency of prospects – Gregory Polanco involves thoughts – Rafaela definitely hasn’t proven something in his restricted time within the majors that refutes these views. Measuring minor league protection, versus viewing it, is fraught with apparent peril, however the defensive estimates that ZiPS makes use of for minor leaguers additionally love his glove. ZiPS makes use of a Whole Zone-esque measure from Gameday hit areas, just like Sean Smith’s methodology from practically 15 years in the past. Sure, we’d desire to have one thing like OAA or DRS and even UZR for minor leaguers publicly accessible, however we don’t, so we’ve to usually be extra conservative about conclusions drawn from the information. However for what it’s value, these estimates, which I name zDEF, had Rafaela as an elite defensive middle fielder within the minors in 2023.

By the way, zDEF had Rafaela at +3 as a shortstop whole for his minor league profession, so if the circumstances warranted it, it wouldn’t essentially be the craziest factor to see him comply with within the footsteps of one other former Crimson Sox prospect, Mookie Betts, and transfer again to shortstop sooner or later, although that definitely will not be why Boston signed Rafaela long run.

Let’s run the eight-year ZiPS for Rafaela.

All informed, ZiPS would fortunately supply him an eight-year, $67 million — $17 million greater than what the Crimson Sox gave him.

One factor to think about: As long as Rafaela’s glove is great, he doesn’t must take a giant offensive step ahead to be value his contract. ZiPS has Rafaela hitting for a skosh extra energy, sufficient to get his OPS+ and wRC+ into the 100 vary throughout his peak years, however not enough to make him a famous person. Because of this, his projections hold him within the solidly above-average territory – he’ll seemingly have an All-Star look or two throughout an up 12 months – however comfortably under star standing. These offensive numbers make him barely higher offensively than the inevitable comp given for him, Jackie Bradley Jr., who put up a 93 OPS+ over elements of eight seasons in Boston and was a couple of runs higher defensively than Rafaela’s projections. Suffice it to say, if ZiPS’s pure conservatism with minor league defensive numbers finally ends up lowballing Rafaela, he’d be a steal at this value and put up WAR numbers within the vary of Kevin Kiermaier’s finest years.

As an offensive participant, Rafaela stays a piece in progress. In 9 video games this season coming into Tuesday, he’s hitting .233/.286/.400 with two triples and an 85 wRC+. He’s really gotten higher at making contact, going from a 69% contact price at Triple-A final 12 months to 73% within the majors to date. Admittedly, this enchancment has are available a small pattern — he’s made simply 124 large league plate appearances mixed between his 2023 late-season debut (72.1% contact in 89 PA) and this 12 months (76.3% in his 35 PA) — however it’s nonetheless encouraging.

That stated, he stays far too aggressive on the plate, particularly when you think about his particular profile as a hitter. In contrast to his teammate Rafael Devers, who additionally swings at a reasonably excessive price of pitches out of the zone, Rafaela doesn’t hit the ball significantly onerous; Devers has energy to spare, so regardless that he doesn’t make as a lot onerous contact on pitches out of the zone — his common exit velocity drops to 85.5 mph, down from 94.9 mph on in-zone pitches — he can nonetheless do injury. Rafaela doesn’t have that luxurious. As an alternative, he’s a speedster (rating twenty eighth in dash velocity this season amongst 202 certified gamers) who performs his residence video games at Fenway Park, one in every of baseball’s finest parks for batting common. He must be incentivized to have a extra contact-oriented recreation than most different batters. His contact abilities seem like bettering, however he received’t get probably the most out of his recreation if he retains chasing pitches that’s he unlikely to hit.

The Betts commerce and the departure of Xander Bogaerts are nonetheless, rightfully, ache factors for Boston followers. However since then, the Crimson Sox appear to be making a greater effort to retain the gamers they develop, first with the Devers extension in January 2023 and now with Bello and Rafaela. Finally, successful is the one factor that can make issues higher in Boston. Maintaining Rafaela on the town must be an necessary step towards that.