The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders however discover themselves 5 video games beneath .500 and 10.5 video games again of the Brewers for the division lead within the Nationwide League Central. It’s definitely not how they drew issues up, however the tightly bunched NL Wild Card image nonetheless leaves Cincinnati with some legit playoff aspirations. The Reds are solely 4 video games again of the third NL Wild Card spot in the meanwhile. They’re one in every of many groups on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline exercise will probably hinge on how the workforce performs within the coming weeks. Actually, common supervisor Brad Meador successfully confirmed as a lot to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“We now have to attend and see how we end off this highway journey and the homestand arising, after which we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re speaking about it. We’d love to have the ability to add, however realistically, we’ll in all probability simply must see the way it goes.”
The Reds management their very own destiny, in lots of respects, and so they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a sequence of eminently winnable video games. They took the primary of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium final night time and have a tricky job ending off that sequence, however they’ll shut out the primary half towards three groups with sub-.500 information — together with the 2 worst golf equipment within the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand the place they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for 3, 4 and three video games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game highway journey by Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg earlier than beginning a house sequence towards the Cubs on July 29 (sooner or later earlier than the July 30 commerce deadline).
It’s a pivotal stretch of video games for the Reds, to say the least. A successful streak may catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (whereas narrowing the division hole), whereas an underwhelming stretch towards a few of the less-competitive golf equipment on the upcoming schedule may function a dying knell for his or her 2024 postseason aspirations. Enjoying roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would depart the entrance workplace with some harder choices to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “imprecise” conversations exploring each side of the market whereas cautioning nothing is shut.
Among the many most notable commerce candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, might be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with 5 homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his stroll price to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a mixed 8.6% in 2022-23.
India is enjoying out the primary season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that purchased out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked right into a $5MM wage for the 2025 season and could be arbitration-eligible within the 2025-26 offseason earlier than hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a very good defensive second baseman, however he’s been a line-drive machine on the plate this 12 months (24.9%) whereas exhibiting his finest Okay-BB profile since successful NL Rookie of the 12 months in 2021.
Whereas India conceded to Wittenmyer that final 12 months’s slate of commerce rumblings obtained to him mentally, this time round he feels extra ready for it. The 27-year-old emphasised a want to stay in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” town and group whereas concurrently acknowledging {that a} potential commerce is past his management and never one thing on which he plans to dwell.
Montas could be the roster’s most simple commerce candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced again to his Oakland kind however has been wholesome with the Reds after lacking practically the entire 2023 season attributable to shoulder surgical procedure. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings throughout 15 begins.
Montas’ 95.1 mph common heater (by way of Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout price isn’t near his career-best 26.6% mark, set again in 2021. Nonetheless, he’s pitched like a succesful sufficient fourth starter and has seen his velocity construct because the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph along with his fastball by late April however is at 95.5 mph courting again to Could 1.
Over Montas’ previous six begins, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of three.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout price. His 10.9% stroll price in that stretch is just too excessive, however the velocity and missed bats are starting to resurface. If he can proceed a few of these constructive positive factors in velocity and strikeouts, Montas might be of curiosity to groups wanting so as to add to the center tier of their rotation.
The Reds produce other candidates to be moved, although their willingness to provide out some stunning opt-out clauses over the winter may work towards them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts value $16MM and $26MM, respectively, however the second season of every of these offers is a participant possibility. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Entrance Workplace subscribers earlier this week, such clauses typically current extreme impediments to buying and selling a participant.
Different names to look at within the occasion of a Reds sale would come with relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free brokers at season’s finish. Every has had various ranges of success this season whereas enjoying on an inexpensive wage. The return for any a kind of three probably wouldn’t be huge however may shed a small cash off the payroll whereas including a lottery-ticket prospect to the decrease tiers of the farm system.
All of that’s placing the cart earlier than the horse, nevertheless. The Reds’ roster may have a pleasant window of winnable video games to persuade the entrance workplace that including items is the right route within the weeks forward. Cincinnati has obtained negligible manufacturing from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — though Noelvi Marte’s current return probably means they’ll set up a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base extra repeatedly now. Including some sort of bat to assist increase the offense could be prudent — assuming the Reds can hold themselves afloat and even enhance upon their standing within the subsequent couple weeks.