Jeff Hoffman’s breakout as an elite reliever within the Phillies’ bullpen over the previous two seasons performed an enormous position within the crew’s success, however now that he’s a free agent it’s doable he’ll check in a very totally different position. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported inside his rating of the offseason’s high free brokers that some golf equipment have thought-about pursuing Hoffman as a beginning pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his personal report, additional mentioning that Hoffman is represented the identical company (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez throughout his personal swap from the bullpen to the rotation final winter.
Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant drive within the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early within the 2023 season. Recency bias would possibly conjure up the unflattering reminiscence of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown in opposition to the Mets, however from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of two.28 ERA ball whereas punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents in opposition to a 7.4% stroll charge. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings in opposition to the Mets isn’t a really perfect closing reminiscence, however Hoffman additionally snapped off six shutout innings of reduction with eight strikeouts and no walks in the course of the 2023 NLCS.
Glorious as Hoffman has been in reduction, there’s purpose to imagine he might achieve a lengthier position. Firstly, the previous No. 8 general draft choose was a starter in his faculty days at East Carolina College and commenced his professional profession in a rotation position. He began 11 huge league video games as not too long ago as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t transfer to a full-time reduction position till his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 skilled video games (majors and minors mixed); 145 of them (40%) have been begins.
Past his familiarity with the position, Hoffman nonetheless makes use of a four-pitch repertoire even when figuring out of the bullpen. Many relievers who have been as soon as starters slim their arsenal down to 2 pitches once they transfer to a brief reduction position. Hoffman nonetheless threw 4 pitches not less than 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. These numbers would absolutely go down have been Hoffman to start working 5, six and 7 innings at a time, however even with decreased life on his fastballs he might nonetheless have common or higher velocity. The league-average beginning pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph along with his four-seamer, per Statcast.
Amongst these 4 pitches, Statcast has ranked all of them as plus choices over the previous two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has simply been one of the best of the bunch, producing an enormous 20.6% swinging-strike charge and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when ending off a plate look with that providing (relationship again to Opening Day 2023). Once more, whether or not he might maintain that degree of dominance when dealing with opponents a second and third time via the order isn’t sure, however Hoffman’s wipeout slider has performed an unlimited position in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.
There are well being and efficiency dangers when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors mixed) in a season since 2019. Even among the many reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out properly in 2024, nobody from the bunch labored what might be thought-about a full workload.
Garrett Crochet got here the closest, compiling 146 innings throughout 32 begins, however the White Sox didn’t enable him to pitch greater than 4 innings in a begin after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings however had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder irritation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 however was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 attributable to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived within the rotation via late Could earlier than stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 within the early summer season and being dropped again to the ’pen in mid-July. He completed at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is maybe one of the best current instance of success on this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this previous season’s Royals.
Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman remains to be likelier to signal as a reliever. It’s the position by which he’s dominated over the previous two seasons, and whereas he’s not the No. 1 reliever on this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, together with MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be thought-about the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.
Gelb suggests Hoffman might favor the reduction position, although logically talking, one would think about he’d merely take one of the best supply doable. That is Hoffman’s first actual crack at a notable MLB contract. He took house a signing bonus of simply over $3MM within the draft however was non-tendered all through his arbitration years and earned a comparatively modest $2.2MM this previous season in his closing arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s profession earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize high greenback, no matter location or position.