The 2024 MLB All-Star Residence Run Derby is sort of right here — and the sector is about!
Spots for essentially the most anticipated baseball occasion of the summer season are actually full, and a few of the largest names in MLB can be duking it out at Globe Life Area in Arlington, Texas, on July 15 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
This 12 months’s Derby will characteristic some vital adjustments, most notably that the primary spherical will not be a head-to-head bracket — the highest 4 first-round scores will advance to the semifinal bracket — and that hitters will see a most of 40 pitches in every timed spherical, inserting extra of an emphasis on effectivity versus pace.
We break down every participant’s possibilities as the sector is introduced, beginning with the primary star to decide to this 12 months’s competitors.
2024 dwelling runs: 27 | Longest: 430 toes
Why he may win: Have you ever seen what Henderson is doing this season? The sophomore shortstop is already on the verge of surpassing his 2023 dwelling run complete (28) in simply over half a season. The important thing to taking his energy to a brand new stage has been bettering his dwelling run-to-fly ball ratio from 19.3% final season to an MLB-leading 32.1% this season. Merely put, good issues occur when Henderson hits the ball within the air — and he’ll get loads of pitches to drive on Derby evening.
Why he won’t: Henderson’s Baseball Savant web page is a sea of purple this season (that means he is above common in most classes) and he is at or close to the highest of each energy leaderboard, however there’s one quantity that might work towards him within the Residence Run Derby: the #1. As in, this can be his first time taking part within the occasion. We all know Henderson’s energy performs in video games, however some gamers are constructed for the pains of the Derby, and others are usually not, and it is inconceivable to know which class even one of the best sluggers slot in till they’re swinging underneath the brilliant lights.
Residence runs: 11 | Longest: 427 toes
Why he may win: The NL’s beginning All-Star third baseman, Bohm is within the midst of a breakout season that has include leaps in his fly ball (33.8% to 36.8%), pull (30.2% to 34.7%) and exhausting contact (31.5% to 37.8%) charges — all issues that bode properly for his possibilities in an occasion the place getting right into a rhythm of pulling the ball over the fence is a key to success.
Why he won’t: That breakout hasn’t translated into an increase in dwelling runs as he has simply 11 lengthy balls this season and his .192 ISO (a stat that measures a participant’s total energy output) is tied for forty second within the majors.
2024 dwelling runs: 18 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he may win: Alonso’s Residence Run Derby historical past speaks for itself: He gained the occasion in 2019 and 2021, becoming a member of Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as back-to-back Derby champions. Certain, he acquired knocked out within the first spherical of final summer season’s occasion, nevertheless it’s exhausting to choose towards Alonso in any Residence Run Derby area.
Why he won’t: Alonso is within the midst of one thing of a down season, with a sub.-800 OPS and solely 18 dwelling runs in 87 video games after belting 40-plus every of the previous two years. One of many largest culprits has been an increase in floor ball charge, which is one thing he cannot afford to see carry into the Residence Run Derby if he needs so as to add a 3rd title to his résumé in Arlington.
2024 dwelling runs: 15 | Longest: 468
Why he may win: You won’t consider Witt as a pure energy hitter, however he really has some historical past in All-Star week dwelling run derbies: He gained the highschool model at Nationals Park in 2018, so perhaps he can channel that method once more in Arlington. To this point this season, Witt has been among the many finest within the sport at squaring up the baseball, rating within the 94th percentile in barrel proportion and 91st in hard-hit proportion with a mean exit velo of 92.7 mph.
Why he won’t: As a result of that is the Residence Run Derby and never a abilities competitors. If MLB held an occasion that mixed every part a participant can do on the sector, Witt could be one of many favorites to win it (together with Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz). Nevertheless, Witt’s 15 dwelling runs rank simply twenty ninth within the majors, and he’s going to must muscle loads of balls out of the ballpark to hold with the larger-framed sluggers he’ll be up towards on Derby evening.
2024 dwelling runs: 23 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he may win: Ozuna has been one in every of few offensive vibrant spots on a Braves staff struggling a significant energy outage from final 12 months’s historic efficiency. His 23 dwelling runs are second within the Nationwide League — behind solely Shohei Ohtani — and his barrel proportion and hard-hit proportion have been elite this season to associate with a career-best 93.1 mph common exit velocity at age 33.
Why he won’t: Regardless of his huge numbers, there’s nonetheless a good quantity of swing and miss in his sport — his swinging strike proportion is Fifteenth-highest in MLB this 12 months and his 31.9% whiff charge is in simply the tenth percentile of hitters. Ozuna has the ability to hold with anybody within the area, however he is acquired to be locked in to get to it.
2024 dwelling runs: 23 | Longest: 436 toes
Why he may win: Recognized extra for his contact capacity than his energy, Ramirez is hitting dwelling runs on the highest full-season charge of his profession — and with out a strikeout charge in keeping with his profession norms. If he can flip that into a gentle stream of line-drive dwelling runs pulled simply contained in the foul pole on Derby evening, the Guardians star may shock some greater sluggers.
Why he won’t: Ramirez stands at simply 5-foot-9, 190 kilos, and his 71.4 mph common unhealthy pace ranks in simply the forty fourth percentile of main league hitters. Like Mookie Betts final summer season, Ramirez may discover that his energy performs higher in video games than it holds up within the Residence Run Derby.
2024 dwelling runs: 17 | Longest: 428 toes
Why he may win: Before everything, home-field benefit. Garcia goes to have the house crowd on his facet Monday evening, and as we discovered all through the 2023 MLB postseason, the Rangers slugger is greater than able to delivering on the massive stage at Globe Life Area. Although his energy output is down this season, he nonetheless hits the ball actually exhausting — his max exit velocity of 116.1 mph is within the prime 2% of MLB hitters this season — and has sufficient energy to catch hearth on Derby evening.
Why he won’t: Garcia is within the twentieth percentile of MLB hitters in chase proportion and seventh percentile of hitters in whiff proportion this season, in accordance with MLB Statcast. With this summer season’s new Residence Run Derby format rewarding effectivity, Garcia’s aggressive method may spell bother.
2024 dwelling runs: 19 | Longest: 431 toes
Why he may win: Hernandez has already hit the ball exhausting. This 12 months, he has develop into a breakout star by combining that with an elite 14.9% barrel charge and lowering his strikeout charge. The method that has led to success in his first 12 months with the Dodgers additionally appears like a possible profitable recipe on Residence Run Derby evening.
Why he won’t: A decreased strikeout charge by Hernandez’s requirements continues to be one of many league’s highest: His 106 strikeouts this season are the ninth most of any hitter, coming a season after he struck out 211 instances, the third-highest complete within the majors. That swing-and-miss concern makes him arguably the most important boom-or-bust slugger on this 12 months’s area.