Nationwide League Division Sequence Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The NL West race might have been settled in favor of the Dodgers this yr, however everyone goes again to the beginning gate within the playoffs. The one distinction is the doable additional house recreation the Dodgers get in every particular person sequence, although house area benefit has been removed from a invaluable perk for groups apart from gross sales of tickets, sizzling canine, and $59 foam fingers. With Los Angeles getting just a few additional days to try to heal up somewhat extra, the Padres acquired right here the exhausting approach, having to win the best-of-three Wild Card Sequence towards the Atlanta Braves, a staff that also managed to squeeze out 89 wins with out Spencer Strider and principally lacking Ronald Acuña Jr.

Whereas a few of baseball’s greatest rivalries are the traditional ones which have endured for the final century, comparable to Yankees-Crimson Sox and Dodgers-Giants, this one between the Dodgers and Padres is an efficient instance of how new rivalries can pop up and be a number of enjoyable, too. Even though the 2 groups have performed in the identical division for greater than 5 many years, solely in recent times has the so-called I-5 Rivalry actually heated up. San Diego has sometimes sustained runs of relevance – that is solely the second model of the Friars to string collectively three profitable seasons in a row – leaving Dodgers followers with few nightmares that includes a brown-and-mustard palette. However these Padres have been aggressive, and in contrast to prior to now when short-term bursts of ambition have been tempered rapidly with brutal fireplace gross sales, they’ve constantly tried to make the Dodgers uncomfortable on the high of the NL West. Even because the Padres traded Juan Soto over the winter, they acquired their Wild Card Sequence Recreation 1 starter Michael King in that deal after which traded for Dylan Stop, who’ll begin Recreation 1 of the Division Sequence, simply earlier than Opening Day. But, final success has confirmed elusive for San Diego, with two disappointing playoff misses in 2021 and 2023 and nonetheless no returns to the World Sequence since 1998’s debacle.

The Dodgers enter the Division Sequence with one thing to show as effectively. Whereas they do have a World Sequence trophy from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with 5 100-win seasons within the final seven regular years, they crave to have extra {hardware} to point out for his or her success. Certain, we’re used to the concept that when you have got giant playoff codecs, profitable the World Sequence takes a number of luck, however neither followers nor historical past care a lot about that. Profitable the World Sequence this yr would wipe out most, if not all, of that disappointment; taking good care of enterprise on this sequence would get the Dodgers one step nearer to that whereas additionally giving them somewhat revenge towards the Padres for knocking them out within the 2022 NLDS, after Los Angeles received a franchise-best 111 video games.

So, how do the groups stack up? Let’s begin with the ZiPS projections. As I sort this, Joe Musgrove has been formally dominated out for the NLDS on account of his elbow harm, which has now been confirmed to require Tommy John surgical procedure. Meaning no Musgrove this postseason – or subsequent season – however for now, we’ll simply cope with the influence of the information on this sequence.

For distinction, listed here are the projections for if Musgrove had been capable of pitch on this five-game set.

Changing Musgrove with Martín Pérez, possible the following man up, mainly flips the win chances for Recreation 4. The place each recreation beforehand favored the house staff within the projections, now the Dodgers are anticipated to win on the street towards Pérez.

Despite the fact that the Dodgers are favored to win with Musgrove out, it will nonetheless be improper to name them overwhelming favorites. It is a shut sequence general, but additionally a swingy one, with 4 of the 5 video games projecting to be at the least a 55-45 break up, which means that for essentially the most half, these video games aren’t projected to be coin flips regardless of the tightness of the sequence as an entire. “Breaking serve” right here by profitable on the street has various worth. If the Padres can get to Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty and win one of many first two video games, they might expose one of many Dodgers’ present weaknesses: a skinny rotation on account of accidents. Walker Buehler had solely three high quality begins out of his 16 outings since coming back from Tommy John surgical procedure in Could; his efficiency was shaky sufficient that in mid-June the Dodgers optioned him to the minors, the place he spent two months making an attempt to get proper, earlier than they introduced him again as much as begin on August 20. And regardless of a superficially interesting ERA, Landon Knack could be concerning the twelfth selection for Los Angeles if everybody have been wholesome. If the Dodgers are capable of get out to a 2-0 lead with none bullpen-exhaustion occasions, like an 18-inning recreation, they is likely to be able of energy to run a bullpen recreation and axe one among their unsure starters from the NLDS rotation.

The place the Dodgers have the benefit is their front-line offensive expertise, which supplies them what seems to be the superior offense general, an edge giant sufficient that it isn’t erased should you view gamers comparable to Jurickson Profar and Donovan Solano with much less skepticism than ZiPS does.

Dylan Stop is a terrific pitcher, however ZiPS thinks the Dodgers’ Large 4 of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and the nice platoon facet of Max Muncy has a combating probability of attending to him. It’s extra of an uphill climb towards Yamamoto; ZiPS has Luis Arraez as the one San Diego batter projected to have a .300 OBP towards Yamamoto, and it provides not one of the Padres a .450 SLG projection towards him. Now, distinction that with the projections at house towards Knack and Buehler.

Certainly one of San Diego’s different benefits, at the least within the eyes of the pc, is its bullpen. Whereas ZiPS has each groups performing equally general, it a lot prefers the depth of the Padres’ unit. To check their bullpens, in every simulation, ZiPS was instructed to knock out each starters after two innings in a single recreation and have one other recreation final 15 innings; in these situations, the percentages of the Padres profitable the sequence go from 42% to 47% – almost a coin flip. In a brief sequence, issues like roster building could make an actual distinction. Have a look at the best way the Nationals have been configured in 2019, with 4 good starters, two relievers they trusted, and a dumpster fireplace behind them. That form of distilled efficiency meant that even when Washington received 13 fewer regular-season video games than Los Angeles that yr, ZiPS projected the groups as almost equal once they met within the 2019 NLDS.

Right here’s what I get from these reams of information: The Dodgers ought to keep the course with what’s labored for all of them yr, belief their elite hitters, and keep away from the temptation to get too cute with their managing techniques, however the Padres must be aggressive. In the event that they see a gap to get to Yamamoto or Flaherty, deal with that recreation prefer it’s Recreation 7 of the World Sequence. San Diego can’t afford to avoid wasting any wacky methods for later. If the Padres can push the Dodgers again on their heels rapidly and early, the latter might run out of time to proper themselves.

One factor you’ll hear lots (in all 4 sequence), particularly early on, is the declare that the layoff is an enormous drawback for groups. Don’t imagine it. If the Padres upset the Dodgers right here within the five-game sequence, it received’t be as a result of Los Angeles was too rested. As an alternative, it’ll be as a result of the Padres performed higher.