After final yr’s disappointing follow-up to their 2023 World Collection-winning season, the Texas Rangers jumped the primary base market in December and improved the remainder of their roster within the course of. First, on the Winter Conferences, they acquired nook infielder Jake Burger in a commerce with the Miami Marlins, a transfer that gave us one among Michael Baumann’s finest headlines: “All the things Is Burger in Texas.”
Burger’s addition made incumbent first baseman Nathaniel Lowe expendable; certain sufficient, a couple of weeks after the Burger commerce, Texas despatched Lowe to the Washington Nationals for left-handed reliever Robert Garcia.
Instantly after transferring Lowe, the Rangers added some thump to their lineup with the signing of Joc Pederson to a two-year, $37 million take care of a mutual choice for a 3rd season. Altogether, the three strikes basically operate as a two-for-one lineup swap, one that ought to present extra energy to this offense, and in addition include the bonus of fortifying their bullpen with a stable lefty who has but to achieve arbitration.
Texas was purported to have among the finest lineups in baseball final season, with lots of the similar gamers getting back from the group that received the World Collection. However issues didn’t go as deliberate, and the Rangers ended the season with a below-average offense (95 wRC+, twenty second within the majors). To be clear, Lowe was not the issue. His 121 wRC+ was the second-best mark on the staff. However the Rangers lacked for energy of their lineup, and two of the positions the place they may get extra slugging had been first base and DH. With Burger and Pederson changing Lowe and a DH committee that prominently featured Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski, Texas has maintained the same offensive flooring, however modified the form of its lineup building and manufacturing.
Pederson, a lefty slugger who performs virtually solely towards righties and didn’t put on a glove final yr, is coming off the perfect offensive season of his profession: 151 wRC+, .381 xwOBA, and .443 xwOBACON. He’s a transparent improve over Lowe and particularly the 65 wRC+ that the Rangers obtained from their DHs final season. One other factor that’s price mentioning: The Rangers play in the identical division because the Seattle Mariners, with their elite rotation of 5 right-handers, and the Houston Astros, with a quartet of righties following ace lefty Framber Valdez. Sure, the 2 groups probably to compete with the Rangers for the AL West title have only one left-handed pitcher between their two rotations. Pederson will get loads of alternatives to do what he does finest: Crush righties.
The Rangers particularly struggled towards the 5 Seattle starters final season, posting a mere .262 xwOBA, and if you wish to go a bit extra in-depth, they had been even worse towards pitches within the higher third of the zone from these 5 righties (.194 xwOBA). These explicit pitches, higher third from righties, had been a serious weak spot for the Rangers final season, even after they weren’t going through the Mariners. Their .265 xwOBA towards all upper-third pitches from righties ranked twenty third in baseball. Lowe particularly had a .225 xwOBA towards such pitches, and solely 20 hitters in all of baseball noticed extra of them than he did.
Pederson, in the meantime, completely torches these excessive pitches from righties. In 2024, he noticed 170 pitches within the higher third of the zone from righties, and his .466 xwOBA towards these pitches was eighth highest out of the 304 hitters who noticed not less than 100 right-handed pitches at that location. Principally, there aren’t many hitters who’re higher suited to assist Texas’ struggles towards Seattle’s power than Pederson. I can’t say for certain this was the Rangers’ intention for signing Pederson and buying and selling Lowe, however both means, they’re now higher ready to face Seattle and different high quality right-handed pitchers.
Total, although, Lowe is an efficient offensive participant who represents a serious improve for the Nationals. Final yr, Washington first basemen mixed for a 93 wRC+; throughout his 4 seasons with the Rangers, Lowe ran a 123 wRC+. His worst mark in that span? 114. Apparently, that 114 wRC+ is precisely what Steamer tasks for him in 2025, however even when he regresses to his Rangers flooring, he ought to lengthen a lineup that options the sturdy younger core of CJ Abrams, James Wooden, and Dylan Crews, in addition to the veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell, whom the Nationals signed to be their on a regular basis DH.
Simply to make certain about Lowe, although, let’s have a look below the hood to see what the info counsel about his efficiency over the past three seasons:
Nathaniel Lowe Efficiency
| Season | wRC+ | xwOBA | xwOBACON | SEAGER (Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 143 | .344 | .419 | 20 |
| 2023 | 117 | .339 | .386 | 85 |
| 2024 | 121 | .328 | .368 | 75 |
His method and swing choices noticed a big enchancment by SEAGER after his profession yr in 2022, when he hit 27 residence runs, recorded a 143 wRC+, completed with 3.1 WAR, and received a Silver Slugger. However together with that enchancment got here a lower involved high quality. Then final yr, Lowe noticed traits within the mistaken route by each xwOBACON and SEAGER. That is a little more worrying, however the drop in SEAGER didn’t have a damaging influence on his BB%, which stayed almost even with the place it was in 2023. The larger concern is his continued slide involved high quality, and that’s price taking note of in his first yr with Washington. Nonetheless, until his manufacturing plunges dramatically — which appears unlikely even with the dips involved high quality and SEAGER — the Nationals certainly will likely be happy.
Garcia is becoming a member of his third main league staff simply in time for this third main league season. On August 1, 2023, the Nationals chosen him off waivers from the Marlins, for whom he appeared in simply 1/3 of an inning, and in 31 2/3 innings with Washington over the ultimate two months of that season, Garcia had a stable 3.69 ERA/3.44 FIP. He was even higher final yr, regardless of his 4.22 ERA, which doesn’t inform the total story of his season. In his 59 2/3 innings throughout 72 video games, he ran a 2.38 FIP, 23.5 Ok-BB%, and 0.60 HR/9. As a lefty who depends totally on his four-seamer/changeup mixture, Garcia gives a distinct look out of the Rangers bullpen. Final yr, he flourished with these two pitches, and the changeup allowed him to neutralize right-handed batters fairly properly. He will get chases, whiffs, strikeouts, and groundballs, and he doesn’t stroll many batters. That’s the precise form of pitcher any staff ought to need. On high of that, he has 5 years of management left in comparison with Lowe’s two, which explains why this one-for-one swap made sense.
Lowe (and Bell) are sensible additions for the Nationals, however they nonetheless have extra work to do earlier than they’re able to contend. In the meantime, even with Garcia, the Rangers would most likely like so as to add a veteran reliever with closing expertise. Garcia has the expertise to be a high-leverage reliever, however they shouldn’t depend on solely him to lock down video games. Nonetheless, the Rangers are a lot better off with Burger, Pederson, and Garcia than they had been with Lowe and the three minor leaguers they traded to Miami. Total, the Rangers have a deeper, extra balanced group that they did a yr in the past. We’ll see if that’s sufficient to get them again to the postseason.