Travis Ice and I’ve begun early work on the Los Angeles Angels and Sacramento Athletics prospect lists, and since each franchises’ prospects are on the Mesa Photo voltaic Sox roster, I spent most of final week seeing no matter recreation they have been taking part in.
At this level within the Fall League, the leaders in video games performed have laced up their spikes solely eight or 9 occasions. Something you’ve examine this 12 months’s AFL up to now has encompassed simply two weeks of part-time play for any given participant. Bear in mind it is a hitter-friendly league for quite a lot of each developmental and environmental causes, and that triple slash strains on this league are usually not a dependable proxy for expertise.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Offensive requirements at first base are fairly excessive, and although the collective efficiency of this 12 months’s group was down relative to latest norms (by form of rather a lot), it’s nonetheless a place from which we count on good gamers and prospects to supply impression energy. Morgan has been a related prospect since highschool, however a relative lack of energy has tended to cap his projection into extra of a part-time first base/outfield position.
Through the 2024 common season it appeared like Morgan was extra usually taking max-effort swings and promoting out for energy. He reached Double-A and slugged .483 throughout three ranges, however his middling uncooked energy and opposite-field tendency as a hitter (plus elevated chase charges relative to his profession norms) recommended this was perhaps not the very best method for him. Within the Fall League, Morgan has been extra balanced, actually taking monumental hacks solely in favorable counts. He’s nonetheless stinging the ball in a manner that signifies he’ll be a doubles machine, and he appears much less susceptible to fastballs up and away than he did through the summer time. We don’t have a manner of really understanding how Morgan will deal with elevated huge league fastballs till he faces them, however a extra balanced, contact-oriented model of hitting goes to present him a a lot better likelihood of protecting the highest of the zone and being a extra full hitter. (An apart: Watch A’s prospect Denzel Clarke go first-to-third on the video’s 1:55 mark.)
I feel absolutely the ceiling for his manufacturing appears to be like one thing like Brandon Belt’s or Daniel Murphy’s pre-Juiced Ball period statline. Extra doubtless Morgan’s output will look one thing like Ji Man Choi’s or LaMonte Wade Jr.’s. Morgan just isn’t a man who’s going to hit 20 homers per 12 months, however a heady, well-rounded offensive skillset coupled along with his glorious, profile-seasoning first base protection make him higher than the 40 FV grade participant I evaluated him as through the 12 months. He’s making a case to be elevated into the again of this offseason’s Prime 100 record.
Caleb Durbin, UTIL, New York Yankees
I gave Durbin quick shrift final 12 months even after his .353/.456/.588 line within the 2023 Fall League. He had 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, together with a robust second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is brief — actually quick, he’s 5-foot-6 — however he’s not small; he’s constructed like a bit tank. His compact, stocky construct helps hold his swing quick and constantly on time to tug the baseball. His high quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a man who slugs underneath .400 on the huge league stage, however he was coping with an harm that usually impacts contact high quality for some time after restoration.
Maybe most significantly, Durbin appears to be like tremendous at each second and third base and has additionally been taking part in everywhere in the outfield. Defensive versatility could be his key to being rostered constantly. Durbin ran a jailbreak 4.10 for me final week, however his home-to-first occasions have been near 4.4 seconds on regular swings. That’s not blazing and slower than what’s typical of an honest middle fielder, however any form of outfield viability would assist the previous Division-III standout develop into an unbelievable huge leaguer. Durbin has performed sparingly in middle subject throughout his profession, and it’s going to be very troublesome to guage him there this Fall League except he begins getting reps there each day, which I feel is unlikely. It’s extra of a factor to observe become subsequent spring.
Kemp Alderman, OF, Miami Marlins
Alderman, a 2023 second spherical pick of Ole Miss who had among the greatest exit velocities in that draft class, is presently main the AFL with six residence runs. He hit one on Friday at a whopping 119.5 mph. It went out on a line, ricocheting off the aspect of the batter’s eye, which you’ll be able to see on this body:
Friday, Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman hit a homer that left Salt River Fields in an actual hurry, at 119.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/HBvj2F0oud
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 22, 2024
Like Durbin, Alderman missed time in 2024 with a damaged hand. It’s good to see Alderman hitting with elite peak energy coming off of this specific harm, however I’d advise everybody to pump the breaks on his total prospectdom presently. He masses his fingers so deep, excessive, and late that I fear he’ll battle towards higher velocity as he climbs the minors. Although Alderman’s regular-season strikeout charges don’t elevate alarm, I don’t assume 30-ish video games at every A-ball stage is a significant pattern, particularly for a draft pick of an SEC faculty. It’s tremendous to be hopeful that I’m flawed or that Alderman will make obligatory changes as soon as higher stuff begins beating him, and he clearly has the ability to clear the offensive bar at a nook outfield spot. However although he’s raking out right here, he doesn’t have an opinion-altering look. I do know Marlins followers have gone via this rather a lot recently, the place they’ve a minor leaguer with elite energy however an inadequate hit software to profile (Peyton Burdick, Griffin Conine, Jerar Encarnacion), and I fear Alderman is one other of this ilk.
Devin Kirby, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Alert Ben Lindbergh, we now have a knuckler. The 25-year-old Kirby was an undrafted free agent out of UConn in 2023 and spent most of 2024 in Fort Myers both on the Complicated or FSL roster. His knuckleball must be extra constant for him to be thought-about a prospect in any respect, however for now it’s plenty of enjoyable to observe a man whose major pitch is his knuckler.
The Arizona Fall League has a knuckleballer this 12 months, Twins righty Devin Kirby. pic.twitter.com/Z6c7ik6vH4
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 18, 2024
Board Additions
Ryan Birchard, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Henry Bolte, OF, Oakland Athletics
These gamers have had their scouting studies added to the Fall League tab on The Board. Head over there to take a look at their software grades and scouting studies.