Seth Lugo’s Kitchen Sink Strategy Has Labored Brilliantly

On Tuesday evening, whereas a lot of the nation tuned in to see Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump, I watched an much more lopsided efficiency from the higher deck at Yankee Stadium, the place the Royals’ Seth Lugo completely dominated the Yankees, holding them to simply three hits, strolling none and hanging out 10 over seven innings in a 5-0 Kansas Metropolis win. By six innings, the one Yankee to achieve base was Gleyber Torres, who blooped tender singles into middle area on Lugo’s fifth pitch of the sport after which, roughly an hour and 20 minutes later, on his 86th pitch; in between, Lugo retired 17 straight hitters. It was the most recent in a season filled with nice outings from the righty, who at 34 years previous is having a profession 12 months whereas pushing the Royals towards their first postseason berth since 2015.

Lugo’s seven scoreless frames ran his whole to a serious league-leading 193 innings whereas reducing his ERA to 2.94, second within the AL behind solely Tarik Skubal. In the meantime, he’s third in WAR with 4.4, 0.2 behind teammate Cole Ragans, fifth in FIP (3.27), seventh in stroll price (5.8%), and eighth in strikeouts (169) regardless of punching out hitters at a modest 21.7% price. He’s additionally tied with Skubal for the league lead in wins (16), and so by our Cy Younger Projection mannequin and its a number of variants, his suite of stats places him second within the AL to Skubal and a snug margin forward of Ragans, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. All of that is taking place within the first 12 months of a three-year, $45 million contract he signed with the Royals final December, and in simply his third season as a starter after largely being typecast as a workhorse reliever throughout his seven seasons with the Mets (2016–22).

Knocking again a few beers from my partial season ticket group’s common perch in Part 422 affords a distinct perspective than within the press field or at dwelling. So when Sports activities Reference’s Katie Sharp famous that the sport was the primary time the Yankees had ever been held to zero walks and 0 extra-base hits whereas hanging out a minimum of 14 instances, I made a decision to take a better take a look at Lugo’s evening to achieve a fuller appreciation of what’s made him so profitable these days.

The Yankees offense has had its points, however the group nonetheless leads the AL in scoring (5.03 runs per recreation) and leads the majors in wRC+ (116). The highest two hitters in baseball by wRC+, Aaron Choose (211 wRC+) and Juan Soto (180 wRC+), are driving that, however they’ve had a stronger supporting solid round them since buying Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins. Chisholm entered Tuesday having produced a 161 wRC+ since debuting with the Yankees on July 28, with Torres (111 wRC+) working to atone for his dreadful first half, and Austin Wells (132 wRC+) and Giancarlo Stanton (104 wRC+) offering extra help. Tuesday evening’s lineup even featured freshly recalled rookie Jasson Domínguez in left area rather than the long-slumping Alex Verdugo.

With a four-seam fastball that topped out at 94.9 mph and averaged 92.5, Lugo didn’t overpower the Yankees a lot as he saved them off stability with an distinctive command of his dizzying array of choices. Based on Statcast, he used 9 completely different pitches whereas checking the containers of a classic Greg Maddux. Work rapidly? His tempo of 15.7 seconds between pitches was six-tenths of a second under his majors-leading common of 16.3 seconds. Change speeds? He landed a minimum of one pitch in each 1-mph bucket between 74 and 95 mph save for the 83- and 84-mph ones, which a minimum of offers him one thing to work on subsequent time. Transfer the batter’s eye degree? Use either side of the plate? Examine and examine.

“It was simply laborious for everybody to get a bead on him,” mentioned Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone afterward. “He’s not making errors. It’s laborious to essentially search for one pitch as a result of he’s throwing the kitchen sink at you, and he’s altering speeds on you, and he’s acquired a lead, and he is aware of tips on how to assault with that. He beat us tonight.”

Lugo confronted 24 batters, a dozen of whom opened their plate appearances by taking known as strikes. Word the spray and the array of pitches:

From among the many righties, the very best and lowest strikes there, each on four-seamers, had been towards Stanton. The cutter and excessive slurve had been each towards Torres, the latter shortly earlier than his second hit, whereas the outermost four-seamer — which was nonetheless on the border of Gameday zone 5, which is to say middle-middle — was the primary pitch he threw to Choose within the first inning. He threw 5 completely different choices to Choose at 5 completely different heights in that plate look alone earlier than hanging him out.

Lugo’s 1-2 curve to Choose was thus far off the plate it didn’t make the Gameday graph, however you’ll see it within the video:

Among the many lefties, the bottom two pitches, a first-inning sinker and a sixth-inning curve, had been thrown to Soto. Lugo struck out the slugger on a excessive foul tip within the first inning, once more following one other well-scattered set of choices that included a first-pitch known as strike; he instantly moved from that sinker on the decrease, internal edge to a cutter on the higher, outer nook:

Soto did put a cost into an 0-2 sinker within the sixth, hitting a 103-mph fly ball to left that was chased down by MJ Melendez simply in need of the warning monitor; that was the one barrel Lugo surrendered all evening, and one in all simply three hard-hit balls. As for the opposite lefties within the illustration, the cutter, curve, and outermost slurve had been to Wells, who grounded out, struck out, and, within the seventh inning, collected the Yankees’ different hit, a 101.5-mph single. The very best first-pitch slurve was to Chisholm within the fifth; he struck out in that plate look. The excessive sinker was to Anthony Rizzo, the one one in all these half-dozen gamers who hasn’t been a part of the aforementioned above-average hitters these days; he ended up hanging out in that sixth-inning PA. Rizzo apart, Lugo challenged the Yankees’ finest hitters within the zone and instantly put them behind within the rely, setting the tone for the evening.

Of the 12 different 0-0 pitches Lugo threw, three had been swinging strikes, all on the sting of the zone or simply barely exterior, and 4 had been fouls:

That’s 19 first-pitch strikes not in play to these 24 hitters, plus one — a sweeper to Anthony Volpe — that was popped up for a straightforward out within the sixth; Volpe additionally took the one borderline pitch of Lugo’s that was known as a ball, a third-inning four-seamer that preceded a foul-tip strikeout.

Fourteen of the hitters that fell behind 0-1 to Lugo by one means or one other ended up down 0-2. In all, the righty generated 14 whiffs (4 apiece with the four-seamer, cutter, and curve, plus one changeup and one slurve) from amongst his 51 swings (27% whiff price) and 26 known as strikes for a CSW price of 38.1%, practically 10 factors above his season price of 28.3%. He struck out 10 of 24 hitters, together with two strikeouts of Choose and one in all Soto, and held the Yankees to a feeble 82.9 mph common exit velocity on contact. Soto and Choose completed a mixed 0-for-8 with 4 strikeouts, with John Schreiber — who took the baton from Kris Bubic following a spotless eighth — whiffing Soto within the ninth inning after which getting Choose to fly out to finish the sport.

Lugo’s stifling of the Yankees made for a stark distinction with New York starter Marcus Stroman, who didn’t have a single 1-2-3 inning in his 5 1/3 frames, and who created extra visitors than a jackknifed 18-wheeler on I-95, yielding seven hits and two walks. By some means the Royals scored solely 3 times towards him, retaining the sport nominally in attain, however the 5-0 victory — which was wrapped up in a tidy two hours and 28 minutes — by no means actually felt shut.

“[Lugo] was mixing a number of pitches very well tonight. He was simply pounding the strike zone… placing strike one and strike two to a lot of the guys,” Soto mentioned. “It’s robust with a man who has, like, 9 pitches and he was exhibiting each pitch, throwing every little thing and he was assured about it, he simply saved us off stability.”

Certainly, Lugo’s success as a starter owes loads to the work he’s achieved to broaden and refine his repertoire. As The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd and Eno Sarris put it earlier this summer time, he “has turn into the game’s reply to Again to the Future’s Doc Brown, a mad scientist perpetually looking for the right pitch form, a cerebral inventor underappreciated — till not too long ago — in his personal time.”

An image is price a thousand phrases, so right here’s a take a look at the best way Lugo’s pitch utilization has advanced throughout his nine-year profession:

And right here’s the rate distribution of this 12 months’s choices:

“It’s really 10 completely different pitch sorts,” Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney advised The Athletic, with Lugo including that pitch classification programs “sort of blur them (collectively) a bit of bit.”

A Thirty fourth-round choose by the Mets out of Centenary School of Louisiana in 2011, Lugo reached the majors 5 years later, first working 9 video games in aid after which becoming a member of the rotation for the stretch run rather than the injured Steven Matz. In seven begins that 12 months, he posted a 2.45 ERA (however a 5.30 FIP) whereas serving to the Mets — whose homegrown pitching expertise had carried them to the World Sequence the 12 months earlier than — to a Wild Card berth. A small UCL tear sidelined Lugo for the primary two months of the 2017 season, however after it healed due to relaxation and a platelet-rich plasma injection, he made 18 begins and one aid look, albeit with less-than-impressive outcomes (4.71 ERA, 3.95 FIP) utilizing a five-pitch arsenal. Although he most well-liked to begin — and infrequently did, totaling 12 begins in 2018 and ’20 — he spent a lot of the subsequent 5 seasons as a reliever, mothballing his changeup however in any other case deploying a four-pitch assault that labored higher out of the bullpen:

As with most pitchers, Lugo was in a position to throw his fastball and different pitches more durable whereas working in brief bursts. The distinction in his four-seam fastball outcomes alone was fairly dramatic:

But Lugo needed to begin, routinely reminding pitching coaches Dave Eiland (2018–19) and Jeremy Hefner (2020–current) of his choice. “If not month-to-month, weekly,” Hefner advised The Athletic. When Lugo reached free company after the 2022 season, he signed a two-year take care of the Padres, one which paid $7.5 million for ’23, with efficiency bonuses based mostly on begins and aid appearances, and a participant choice for $7.5 million in ’24. As you may see from the utilization graph, he developed a few distinct breaking ball variants, a slurve and a sweeper, to go along with his curve and slider, and he even dusted off his changeup after throwing simply 5 in 2020–21 and none in ’22.

Although he missed a few month in Might and June resulting from a left calf pressure, Lugo had a great season for a Padres group that for all of its star energy was most notable for its underachievement. Regardless of a franchise file $255 million payroll, a full season of Soto, a Cy Younger from Blake Snell, and a Platinum Glove from Fernando Tatis Jr., the group went 82-80 and missed the playoffs. For his half, Lugo pitched to a 3.57 ERA and three.83 FIP in 26 begins totaling 146 1/3 innings, hanging out 23.2% of hitters and setting a profession excessive with 2.9 WAR. Arduous contact was an issue, as steered by his 4.42 xERA (thirty ninth percentile). Batters averaged a 90.7 mph exit velocity towards him, with a 9.6% barrel price and 44.2% hard-hit price, figures that every one ranked within the twenty third percentile or decrease.

Nonetheless, it was a powerful sufficient season that Lugo opted out and netted a contract that not solely doubled his annual wage however assured the identical $15 million for 2025 and, by way of a participant choice, ’26 as nicely. On Lugo’s half, it was an enormous leap of religion to hitch a group that misplaced 106 video games final 12 months, however between the free agent additions of Lugo and Michael Wacha, the blossoming of Ragans, a mid-2023 acquisition, and the advance of former first-round choose Brady Singer, the Royals can declare 4 of the highest 11 AL qualifiers by ERA, all of whom moreover rank within the high 15 by WAR. Additionally they have a believable MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr., and at this writing they’re 80-67, with a 92.7% likelihood of creating the playoffs, although after briefly transferring into a share of first place late final month, they’ve slipped again to 4 1/2 video games behind the Guardians.

Lugo pitched his approach onto the AL All-Star group with a 2.48 ERA and three.33 FIP within the first half, however from July 13 to August 13, he was touched for a 5.73 ERA in six begins totaling 37 2/3 innings. He’s righted the ship these days; over his previous three turns, all towards potential AL postseason opponents (the Astros, Guardians, and Yankees), he’s allowed two runs and two walks whereas hanging out 23 in 21 innings. He isn’t hanging out as many hitters as final 12 months (21.7% vs. 23.2%), however he’s trimmed his homer price from 1.17 per 9 to 0.7. He’s elevated the utilization of his slurve and sweeper whereas chopping again on these of his four-seamer and sinker. Right here’s the way it breaks down alongside platoon strains:

These are two completely different plans of assault. Towards righties, Lugo tends to favor the sinker over the four-seamer, with the slurve and slider his high two secondaries. Towards lefties, the four-seamer is his fastball of alternative, with the curve and changeup his high secondaries. A few of his much less steadily used choices are significantly efficient, with the factor of shock an element. When the Yankees touched up Lugo for 4 runs in seven innings in Kansas Metropolis on June 10, he threw simply six cutters out of 101 pitches, whereas on Tuesday he threw 24, greater than another providing. Along with 4 whiffs, he acquired seven known as strikes along with his cutter for a 46% CSW price, spectacular however nonetheless shy of his 60% CSW price along with his four-seamer, which he threw simply 15 instances.

Word that every one of that is taking place with an arsenal that makes our two pitch-modeling programs go “meh,” besides with respect to his breaking balls, that are aggregated such that his slurve is taken into account along with his curve and his sweeper along with his slider. Lugo’s spin charges on his curve (3,285 rpm) and slurve (3,133 rpm) are the majors’ highest for his or her respective pitches — admittedly, the latter has a lot much less competitors — and by Stuff+, solely his curves (135) and sliders (136) price as above-average pitches, along with his cutter proper at common (100). PitchingBot sees solely the curves (56) as above common, grading the sliders at 39. Due to Lugo’s glorious command, each programs rating him proper at common of their total metrics: 100 by way of Pitching+, 50 by way of BotOvr. Uh, okay.

Clearly, these metrics solely inform a part of the story. No matter Lugo is doing is working fairly nicely, and it’s doubtless going to garner him Cy Younger votes and an opportunity to make some noise within the playoffs. You may’t ask for an entire lot extra from a free agent acquisition — or from any pitcher, for that matter.