The Dodgers Outfield Has Been Very, Very Dangerous to Begin the Season

For greater than a decade now, the Dodgers have reigned over Main League Baseball by a mix of top-end expertise and strong depth. Versatile function gamers like Enrique Hernández and Chris Taylor have complemented stars like Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, and Mookie Betts, whereas glorious scouting and participant improvement departments have meant that the group has by no means needed to scrounge for spare components. That blend has normally stored Los Angeles away from our Substitute-Stage Killers sequence. This season, nonetheless, the Dodgers have a large gap: your complete outfield. Dodgers outfielders have accrued -0.5 WAR, tied with the Phillies for useless final in baseball. Subsequent time somebody tells you to think about buying and selling Mookie Betts, take a second to really feel sorry for the Los Angeles outfielders, which didn’t even get to commerce Betts to the infield; they only gave him away with out getting a lot as a Jeter Downs in return. Let’s check out what’s occurring on the market, courtesy of our the shiny new splits on our leaderboard.

Nicely, that’s easy sufficient. The offense has been horrible, the protection has been not nice, and Mookie Betts is a shortstop now. Earlier than we go any additional, it’s time for me to shout the phrase April just a few instances. The stats above are primarily based on simply 239 plate appearances. Numerous issues are going to alter. In reality, one factor has already modified: On Tuesday, the Dodgers known as up prospect Andy Pages and began him in middle (presumably as a result of they hacked the FanGraphs Slack and knew I used to be writing about their outfield wants). He knocked an RBI single on his first pitch.

That stated, it’s not too early to take a look at what’s occurring and ask some questions. To start with, Jason Heyward is on the IL with decrease again tightness. He hasn’t performed since March 30, which implies the Dodgers have solely gotten to expire their most well-liked outfield lineup 5 instances. In accordance with Dave Roberts, Heyward’s harm is not enhancing sufficient for there to be a agency timetable on his return. Following the harm, the Dodgers claimed Taylor Trammell off waivers from the Mariners, however have solely given him six plate appearances. With Heyward gone, Teoscar Hernández has been the on a regular basis proper fielder. James Outman and Enrique Hernández have platooned in middle. Chris Taylor has began in left, with Enrique Hernández additionally getting just a few begins there in opposition to righties. With none of that working, Roberts stated on Tuesday that Pages will probably see vital enjoying time in opposition to each righties and lefties.

This looks like the appropriate place to acknowledge how complicated the panorama is when it comes to names. There are two Hernándezes, a first-name Taylor and a last-name Taylor, and an Outman who’s all of a sudden residing as much as his title in any case.

Let’s begin with the nice. Teoscar Hernández is crushing it proper now. After a down 12 months in Seattle — presumably the results of having bother seeing the ball at T-Cell Park — Hernández signed a one-year deal in January, and is off to a operating begin. Nevertheless, it’s early and he has a .314 xwOBA, which might be his worst mark since 2019. Thus far, Hernández is chasing a lot much less, making much more contact, and never sacrificing any contact high quality. He could not keep fortunate eternally, however these underlying numbers are encouraging.

In 2023, James Outman put up a four-win rookie season by doing what we nerds so typically ask of hitters: profiting from his exhausting contact by pulling the ball within the air. Because of this, he launched 23 homers and ran an ideal barrel charge regardless of below-average contact high quality and many strikeouts. That additionally made him a probable regression candidate. Regardless of a 118 wRC+, he ran a DRC+ of 84. The D stands for Deserved, and this season, his DRC+ is 81. Nevertheless, it’s means too early to imagine that Outman can’t replicate his 2024 efficiency or discover methods to get higher in his sophomore marketing campaign. Thus far this season, he’s hitting the ball a bit more durable and his contact charge has improved from infinitesimally small to merely microscopic. Outman isn’t going to run a .242 BABIP all 12 months, and it’s too early to panic about him. Nevertheless, he wants a platoon associate, and proper now, he actually doesn’t have one.

Chris Taylor isn’t going to maintain operating a hilariously low .069 BABIP or a under no circumstances humorous -25 wRC+. Even over a brief pattern dimension, these are astoundingly unfortunate numbers. He’s been extraordinarily aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. That needs to be factor, however he’s made contact with them simply 67.7% of the time, resulting in a 42.9% strikeout charge. As a result of he’s strolling and putting out like Joey Gallo, Taylor has put solely 18 balls in play. That’s a tiny pattern dimension, so it’s too early to do something greater than observe that his contact high quality has been dreadful. Taylor is coming off a 104 wRC+ in 2023, and he’s solely been beneath 100 as soon as within the final eight seasons.

Enrique Hernández hit his first homer of the season Tuesday night time. Possibly the Dodgers will help him discover his swing; in any case, he hit a lot better following the commerce that despatched him from Boston to Los Angeles in 2023. However please perceive how huge a reclamation challenge that might be. From 2022 to 2024, Hernández has run a 72 wRC+, making him the sixth-worst hitter in all of baseball (minimal 700 PAs). The gamers beneath him may all be roughly described as defensive specialists; they’ve all put up optimistic WAR totals due to good defensive marks (excluding Martín Maldonado, whose defensive worth is invisible to defensive metrics and fairly presumably seen solely to MLB managers). However Hernández has been value -8.9 runs within the discipline, and -0.9 WAR general, making the seventh-worst place participant general. That’s not only a replacement-level killer. His ugly defensive numbers at shortstop in 2023 had been eye-opening, and if he doesn’t have the glove for middle or the bat for left, that’s an enormous downside.

Lastly, there’s Pages (pronounced PA-hez), who was known as up Tuesday. The 23-year-old Cuban missed many of the 2023 season on account of surgical procedure to restore a torn labrum in his proper shoulder, however he’s already hit 5 homers at Triple-A this season. We have now him ranked seventh within the Dodgers system. MLB Pipeline has him ranked increased: third within the system and 96th general. After discussing Outman and Teoscar Hernández, Pages’ profile would possibly sound acquainted. His swing is designed to generate elevate, permitting him to do loads of harm although he doesn’t boast tons of uncooked energy. Like Outman and Hernández, that additionally means he’s going to strike out fairly a bit. He began in middle on Wednesday and has performed there some within the minors, however he’s destined for a nook spot long-term, with an enormous arm that makes proper discipline more than likely.

Pages brings another factor that the Los Angeles outfield sorely wants: youth. Till the arrival of Pages, Outman was the child, however he’ll flip 27 in per week. Prorated by plate appearances, Dodgers outfielders are 30.5 years previous, making them the third-oldest outfield in baseball. The oldest gamers are additionally those with the most important query marks. Can Heyward keep wholesome, and if he does, can he repeat his 2023 breakout? Are Taylor and Enrique Hernández nonetheless helpful items at this stage of their careers? The general power of their roster signifies that the Dodgers can probably coast to the playoffs even when they preserve getting completely nothing from their outfield, however that’s not normally how they function.