The ultimate week of the 2024 MLB common season has arrived — and there’s no scarcity of drama left.
The race for the ultimate two Nationwide League playoff spots is coming all the way down to the wire, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves set to start a three-game showdown Tuesday night time. After turning into the primary member of the 50/50 membership with one among MLB’s all-time biggest performances, Shohei Ohtani has six extra video games so as to add to his historic totals.
Which different sequence and particular person accomplishments do you have to be watching throughout baseball’s dash to the end? Our MLB consultants establish the largest issues to observe because the season involves its thrilling conclusion.
The Mets-Braves sequence we have all been circling begins Tuesday. Who’s going to win it and why?
Jeff Passan: We had been right here not way back. It was 2022. Mets-Braves. Video games 156-158. Atlanta swept the sequence and gained the division, and the Mets bought bounced within the wild-card spherical. That is completely different. The Braves nonetheless is perhaps essentially the most gifted squad in baseball, however accidents have completely ravaged them this season. The Mets have been the far-better-performing crew. Since June 3, New York is 62-34 — the very best report in MLB — and Atlanta is barely a .500 crew. The Mets know that with a sequence win they will wrap up the wild card. And that is what they will do.
Jesse Rogers: Atlanta is cooked, whereas the Mets have some postseason mojo going already. Does that reply your query? The truth that the Braves have lasted this lengthy is a testomony to the character of the group. However the magic they felt in 2021 is now within the different dugout. The Mets take the sequence and safe a wild-card spot as effectively.
David Schoenfield: Properly, I am not betting in opposition to Chris Sale: The Braves have gained the previous eight video games he has began. Logic dictates the 2 groups break up the opposite two video games so that offers the sequence to Atlanta. And contemplating the 2 groups have break up the season sequence up to now, that might give the tiebreaker edge to the Braves in the event that they find yourself with the identical last report as New York.
Alden Gonzalez: For as damage and as flawed because the Braves have been this season, we are able to nonetheless establish one clear energy: beginning pitching. And so I am betting on the trio of Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale and Max Fried — to not point out a frantic dwelling crowd — being sufficient to take two of three, giving Atlanta the tiebreaker and placing it a sport again heading into the ultimate weekend. One drawback: The Braves will finish the common season enjoying in opposition to a Kansas Metropolis Royals crew that may in all probability nonetheless be preventing for a wild-card spot. The Mets will play a Milwaukee Brewers crew that has already locked up its division and might be largely resting for October.
Which different sequence are you most excited to observe over the ultimate week?
Passan: There are such a lot of good ones. Orioles-Yankees. Padres-Dodgers. Mets-Brewers. Royals-Braves. However give me the Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros. Seattle has hung round on the periphery of the wild-card race sufficient to doubtlessly make issues attention-grabbing. At one level this season, it led the American League West by 10 video games. Barring an epic collapse, Houston will win the division — however a sweep by the Mariners may put them in place to salvage a wild-card spot. No matter end result, it is a dream sequence for followers of beginning pitching. Bryce Miller vs. Hunter Brown, Logan Gilbert vs. Framber Valdez and George Kirby vs. Yusei Kikuchi. It does not get a complete lot higher than that.
Rogers: Properly, it might be fairly enjoyable if the Chicago White Sox may in some way keep away from setting the report for essentially the most losses in a single season by profitable video games in opposition to the Detroit Tigers this coming weekend — whereas additionally stopping the Tigers from making the postseason. If the other occurs and Detroit sweeps, it is going to have gone 12-1 in opposition to the White Sox — the identical report the Royals and Minnesota Twins have in opposition to the Sox this season. Chicago’s futility saved your complete AL Central within the playoff race, impacting the playoff probabilities of different AL groups such because the Boston Pink Sox and Mariners. Alas, the White Sox are only one loss away from a brand new report — however that does not essentially imply they cannot spoil issues for the Tigers this weekend.
Schoenfield: The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres to start the week, and if the Padres can sweep the Dodgers, that may make the ultimate weekend very attention-grabbing within the NL West, with the Dodgers at Colorado and the Padres at Arizona. So, benefit L.A. The season-ending sequence between the Royals and Braves additionally looms giant, with the Royals instantly seeing their miracle season in jeopardy and Atlanta scrambling to keep away from lacking the playoffs for the primary time since 2017.
Gonzalez: Royals-Braves has an opportunity to be excessive drama heading into the common season’s last three days. The Royals have solely a one-game cushion on the Twins — whereas tied with the Tigers — for a wild-card spot within the AL (they maintain the tiebreaker over the Tigers however not the Twins). The Braves are one sport again within the NL. There’s nothing extra enjoyable than a last sequence with excessive stakes, and that is precisely what may play out with these two groups starting Friday.
Now that Shohei Ohtani has already eclipsed the 50/50 mark, what’s going to his last dwelling run and stolen base totals be?
Passan: Let’s attempt 56 dwelling runs and 58 stolen bases. When Ohtani goes on a heater like this, he can pile up numbers in bunches. Each time he is on through a stroll or hit, he ought to run — fastidiously, after all, with the postseason across the nook, however with intent, understanding he is in all probability by no means once more going to have the bandwidth to pitch, hit and swipe baggage. So if all we have now left is every week of Ohtani, stolen base maestro, the denouement needs to be consultant of the remainder of his unbelievable season.
Rogers: I will make a really unscientific guess and say he slows down a bit of on the bases as he preps for the postseason. An damage now can be devastating. However he’ll hit two extra dwelling runs and nonetheless swipe three extra bases — however not more than that. So 55/58 is my prediction.
Schoenfield: I, too, thought he would decelerate on the bases after attending to 50, however nope. And contemplating he may hit, I do not know, half a dozen dwelling runs within the last sequence in Colorado, I am tempted to say 60/60. However I will go along with 56 dwelling runs and 60 stolen bases.
Gonzalez: My guess — on condition that the Dodgers will in all probability earn a bye and will definitely do all the things they will to maintain their gamers contemporary heading into the division sequence, given what occurred these previous two years — is that Ohtani will play each remaining sport. If he does, he’ll play three video games in opposition to a Padres crew that does an excellent job stopping stolen bases and three video games within the skinny air of Colorado, a playpen for the sport’s finest energy hitters. So let’s go along with 4 extra homers and two extra steals to make him 57/57. Aspect word: In the event you do not suppose he is eyeing the house run race with Aaron Decide, you have not been paying shut sufficient consideration to Ohtani’s profession.
Which different particular person participant achievement are you watching most intently this week?
Passan: Can Decide backdoor the Triple Crown? He’s going to win the AL dwelling run crown. He’s going to win the AL RBI crown — and can virtually definitely be the primary hitter in 15 years with at the least 140 RBIs. Batting common is the potential bugaboo. He is at present 11 factors behind Bobby Witt Jr. — and trails Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as effectively. Decide is the AL MVP no matter whether or not he can pull off this explicit feat, however doing so would solely add to the greatness of an already all-time season.
Rogers: Name me old style — or simply outdated — however is the NL actually going to have just one batter hit .300 or higher? After all of the rule modifications, together with eliminating the shift and introducing a pitch clock in order that pitchers throw faster, MLB nonetheless has a hitting drawback. If Marcell Ozuna (.306) drops beneath .300 and Trea Turner (.298) does not leap above it, it’s going to go away Padres star Luis Arraez because the lone .300 hitter within the NL. Ugh.
Schoenfield: Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal are each closing in on the pitching Triple Crown — wins, ERA and strikeouts, final completed in a full season in 2011, when Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw each did it (Shane Bieber did it within the shortened 2020 season). The strikeout races are shut: Sale leads Dylan Stop by 5, and Skubal leads Cole Ragans by 4. That may be enjoyable. However let me simply return to Ohtani right here for a minute: He has 383 complete bases, so he has an ideal shot at 400. The final gamers to achieve 400 did so in 2001, and the final participant exterior of the 1997-2001 PED window was Jim Rice in 1978.
Gonzalez: I will cheat a bit of and say there are literally three gamers I am watching intently heading into the ultimate week: Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio and Paul Skenes. Yep, the NL Rookie of the Yr race continues to be that shut. Chourio is perhaps a distant third at this level, however given he is a 20-year-old who has helped carry a Brewers offense that has no enterprise being this good, he’ll in all probability get some love from the voters regardless. Merrill and Skenes, in the meantime, may come all the way down to the ultimate days.
The Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Guardians have all clinched playoff spots, however what are you on the lookout for of their final week of regular-season video games?
Passan: I need to understand how groups will line up their postseason rotations. Past Gerrit Cole, whom does New York go along with in Video games 2-4 of the division sequence? Zack Wheeler is clearly the Phillies’ No. 1. How does supervisor Rob Thomson order Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez (whose home-road splits are profoundly completely different) and Ranger Suarez? After Freddy Peralta, do the Brewers go along with Tobias Myers forward of Frankie Montas and Colin Rea — and in the event that they’re in a three-game wild-card sequence, which of these three does not get a begin? Tanner Bibee will begin Recreation 1 for Cleveland. Past that, Ben Full of life has been essentially the most constant all yr, Gavin Williams has the very best stuff, Matt Boyd has the very best peripherals and Joey Cantillo has carried out the very best over the previous two weeks.
Rogers: In a yr of immense parity, getting a bye and home-field benefit appears extra paramount than ever. Any edge may make the distinction in October. All of that might be decided this week. How these groups navigate these needs — mixed with maintaining their pitchers wholesome and prepared for the next week — might be attention-grabbing to observe.
Schoenfield: Of these groups, the Dodgers are essentially the most attention-grabbing right here: Who the heck goes to be within the playoff rotation after Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Supervisor Dave Roberts is simply begging to see one thing from Walker Buehler or Landon Knack. However I feel that is why it is most necessary for the Dodgers to keep away from the wild-card sequence: They want one among their prime starters able to go in Recreation 1 of the division sequence and can admire having a contemporary bullpen for that sequence as effectively.
Gonzalez: It is not simply the starting-pitching depth that is a priority for the Dodgers — the 2 guys they thought they may depend on, Flaherty and Yamamoto, have not been all that good currently. Flaherty has given up a mixed seven runs on 10 hits and 6 walks in 9 innings in opposition to the Braves and Miami Marlins his previous two occasions out. Yamamoto, in the meantime, did not make it into the fourth inning in opposition to the lowly Colorado Rockies on Sunday, recording 9 outs and permitting eight baserunners. They will every have yet another flip by the rotation earlier than issues get actual.
Which participant from a non-playoff crew are you ensuring to observe yet another time earlier than the season ends?
Passan: Over the previous month, Oakland Athletics outfielder Lawrence Butler has been one of many 5 finest hitters in baseball. Because the All-Star break, he has been one of many prime 10. It is appalling that followers in Oakland will not get to observe him blossom with Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Jacob Wilson, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom and the soon-to-arrive Nick Kurtz and Henry Bolte. That is bought an opportunity to be a profitable core, and as Oakland celebrates the A’s whereas lamenting their proprietor this week, it might be good for Butler to ship the followers off with good reminiscences.
Rogers: Selfishly, Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs. After 11 seasons within the majors, he is prone to make his final begin with the one huge league crew he has identified. That ought to come this weekend in opposition to the Cincinnati Reds — in all probability Saturday — after which Hendricks will grow to be a free agent for the primary time in his profession. There is perhaps individuals within the league who’re his equal in relation to kindness and respect for followers, media and the sport itself, however it might be arduous to discover a participant who surpasses him in any of these areas. And when he leaves, the Cubs is not going to have any gamers remaining from their 2016 championship crew.
Schoenfield: Skenes began on Sunday and lowered his ERA to 1.99, and he will get one last begin to cap off his exceptional rookie season. However the one sport I do know I will test in on would be the Athletics’ dwelling finale on Thursday afternoon. Followers in Oakland deserved higher than this ending after so a few years of wealthy baseball historical past and epic moments — together with 4 World Collection titles — so let’s hope the A’s ship one final win in Oakland.
Gonzalez: Julio Rodriguez has had largely a depressing season for a Mariners crew that’s merely on the fringes of competition heading into the ultimate week — however he is lastly beginning to flip it on, OPS’ing 1.294 and hitting 5 dwelling runs over his previous 9 video games. Maybe it is too late to sneak the Mariners into the playoffs, however when Rodriguez is correct, he is pretty much as good as anybody. We have missed seeing it.